416
FXUS61 KBTV 161112
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR
MASS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT,
ALLOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 114 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL FOG IS
ONGOING WITH SOME PATCHY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
LONG DETACHMENT FROM PRECIPITATION, FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
WIDESPREAD BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
BEYOND SUNRISE TODAY, ANOTHER SUNNY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED. A FEW MID TO UPPER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT FROM A DECAYING COASTAL LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC,
HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD ENJOY ANOTHER BLUEBIRD
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S FOR THE VALLEYS AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW (30-40%)
KEEPING THE AREA ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE. RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG LOOK LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY WILL ALMOST BE A CARBON COPY
OF TODAY TEMPERATURE WISE WITH VALUES HOVERING AROUND 80.
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE COASTAL LOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM SUBSIDES AND BROADENS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 114 AM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK LOOKS TO BE
FAVORED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS
VERMONT MAY LIMIT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER,
FURTHER DETACHMENT FROM PRECIPITATION WILL START TO LIMIT THE
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF ANY FOG IN TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BRIEF WARMING
TREND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 222 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED
IN THE LONG TERM AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACRS MOST OF OUR
REGION. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRNT WL DROP SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA ON THURS NIGHT, WITH JUST A SMALL POCKET OF SCHC POPS
FROM THE NBM. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WL FEATURE MODERATELY STRONG
925MB TO 850MB CAA ON MODEST NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15
KNOTS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH LOWS UPPER 20S TO MID 40S, EXCEPT NEAR 50F IN THE
CPV. DID NOTE THE MEXSLK HAD A 28 ON SAT MORNING AND 25 SUNDAY
MORNING, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS COMING WEEKEND. 1030MB HIGH PRES BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WAA. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWS WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 50S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...ITS BEEN A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING AT
SEVERAL OF OUR TAF SITES. THIS INCLUDED MSS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AND BRIEFLY AT BTV, WHILE FOG WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP AT SLK WITH
PREVAILING VLIFR AT MPV/EFK. ANY LINGERING FOG/IFR SHOULD LIFT
BY 13Z AT EFK/SLK AND 1330Z AT MPV. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL THRU 06Z TONIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE
TRICKY AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS AND WINDS COULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT, SO HAVE JUST USED TEMPO'S AT SLK/MPV FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS CAN FINE TUNE IFR IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
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