228
FXUS61 KBTV 161813
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
213 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR
MASS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT,
ALLOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 114 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL FOG IS
ONGOING WITH SOME PATCHY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
LONG DETACHMENT FROM PRECIPITATION, FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
WIDESPREAD BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
BEYOND SUNRISE TODAY, ANOTHER SUNNY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED. A FEW MID TO UPPER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT FROM A DECAYING COASTAL LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC,
HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD ENJOY ANOTHER BLUEBIRD
SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S FOR THE VALLEYS AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW (30-40%)
KEEPING THE AREA ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE. RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG LOOK LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY WILL ALMOST BE A CARBON COPY
OF TODAY TEMPERATURE WISE WITH VALUES HOVERING AROUND 80.
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE COASTAL LOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM SUBSIDES AND BROADENS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 114 AM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK LOOKS TO BE
FAVORED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS
VERMONT MAY LIMIT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER,
FURTHER DETACHMENT FROM PRECIPITATION WILL START TO LIMIT THE
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF ANY FOG IN TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BRIEF WARMING
TREND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 158 PM EDT TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
FAVORED TO MAXIMIZE EARLY FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND GUSTS
15 TO 25 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ON RIDGES. WHILE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT, THERE
ARE STILL LEAVES ON TREES TEMPERING ANY STRONGER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS DECREASE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING OVERHEAD AGAIN. MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH
MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PATTERN
COULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM
GETTING TOO HOPEFUL FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. A SYSTEM COULD DRAG
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS MONDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE, HOWEVER, IF THE RIDGE
WILL HOLD STRONGER AND SHUNT THESE CHANCES MORE NORTHWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE
RELATED TO FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR
MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, THE BEST CHANCES OF FOG WILL
BE AT MPV/SLK WITH LOWER CHANCES AT EFK. HIGH CLOUDS AND THE
SLIGHT BUMP IN WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG AT PBG AND BTV. FOR MSS,
850MB FLOW WILL BE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO FAVORING SOME BKN035-060
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD
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