674
FXUS61 KBTV 161814
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT, ALLOWING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 214 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE, WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOME RADIATIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO CREST OVERHEAD. WITH THE LACK
OF MOISTURE, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP IN THE 40S AND 50S.
TOMORROW WILL FEATURE NEARLY IDENTICAL WEATHER TO TODAY, WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING COASTAL LOW IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION TOMORROW,HOWEVER
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 50S EXPECTED, WITH ALMOST 60 EXPECTED NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 214 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO
NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE
WILL BE NONEXISTENT OR NEGLIGIBLE, WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY
DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 158 PM EDT TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
FAVORED TO MAXIMIZE EARLY FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND GUSTS
15 TO 25 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND ON RIDGES. WHILE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT, THERE
ARE STILL LEAVES ON TREES TEMPERING ANY STRONGER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS DECREASE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING OVERHEAD AGAIN. MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH
MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PATTERN
COULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM
GETTING TOO HOPEFUL FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. A SYSTEM COULD DRAG
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS MONDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE, HOWEVER, IF THE RIDGE
WILL HOLD STRONGER AND SHUNT THESE CHANCES MORE NORTHWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE
RELATED TO FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR
MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, THE BEST CHANCES OF FOG WILL
BE AT MPV/SLK WITH LOWER CHANCES AT EFK. HIGH CLOUDS AND THE
SLIGHT BUMP IN WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG AT PBG AND BTV. FOR MSS,
850MB FLOW WILL BE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO FAVORING SOME BKN035-060
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD
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