390
FXUS61 KBTV 020544
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A COUPLE FROSTY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ONCE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. BY THE NEW
WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLIMBING TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A FEW NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE SET BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL ALSO
BE OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARDS
WHILE CHANNELED FLOW IN THE MID- LEVELS IS TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL
ADVECT COLD AIR TODAY AMIDST A STOUT NORTH WIND. WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING, THESE GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY, BUT THE COOL AIR MEANS THAT
IT'LL BE HARDER TO GET LOW RHS AND MOST PLACES WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 40 PERCENT, WITH A FEW LOCALES LIKE THE UPPER VALLEY CLOSER
TO 30, BUT WITH LIMITED WIND. CENTER OF STRONG 1033MB HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ABOUT AS EFFICIENT AS
YOU CAN POSSIBLY GET WITHOUT FRESH SNOW. SO MID 20S TO MID 30S,
EXCEPT NEAR 40 BY LAKE CHAMPLAIN IS EXPECTED. FROST ADVISORY AND
FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW
YORK STILL IN THE GROWING SEASON. ADDITIONALLY, ANTICIPATE FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. COLD WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EFFICIENT FOG
FORMATION ON THE FACE OF OUR WARM WATERS, DESPITE LIMITED SOIL
MOISTURE.
ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED. WITH THE CENTER
OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AT 5 MPH OR SO. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM AT LEAST INTO THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
LOWER, THOUGH WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35
PERCENT. THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMBLE OFFSHORE, INDUCING
A SUBTLE SOUTH WIND. SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL STILL LIKELY GO CALM.
SO, MID 40S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND 30 IN SHELTERED
LOCATIONS APPEARS MOST LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARDS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CANADA,
WHICH WILL ESTABLISH CHANNELED FLOW. THIS WILL LAY OUT THE ANOMALOUS
WARM, RED CARPET OF CONTINENTAL AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
70S FOR MOST EVERYONE AGAIN BY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH IN THE VALLEYS, OR 5 TO 10 IN SHELTERED AREAS WILL DEVELOP.
THERE'S AT LEAST SOME SURFACE MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY
BOTTOM OUT TOWARDS 35 TO 40 PERCENT AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 40S.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHILE
A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARDS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE THE WINNER, THOUGH. THE PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW (5-10%),
BUT IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A SPRINKLE MAY TAKE PLACE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THAT THIS MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH SATURDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES LEANING ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 40S IN THE DACKS AND
EASTERN VERMONT AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE BROAD VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 142 AM EDT THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL
REIGN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING US DRY,
MOSTLY SUNNY, AND VERY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE,
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY OCTOBER. AT
NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S, ALSO
QUITE MILD (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE OVERALL WARM AIR MASS SITTING
OVERHEAD. WHILE CLEAR SKIES MAY HELP WITH RADIATION VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WE'LL SEE A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND, DRY AIR,
AND NO RECENT RAIN TO HELP IT ALONG.
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS MODELS
PROJECT A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TO MID
WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
OCCURRING TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE TIME FRAME OF PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK
WITH EACH RUN. AFTER THIS COLD FRONT, WE'LL SEE AN INFLUX OF MUCH
COOLER AIR AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS. LOW DEW POINTS, NO RAIN IN THE PAST 24+ HOURS, AND
SOME SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS KEEP FOG CONFIDENCE LOW
THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER'S
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SHALLOW FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT SLK AND
MPV, AND ADDED EFK AS WELL CONSIDERING HOW YESTERDAY MORNING
WENT FOR THEM PLUS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED. HIGHEST
CHANCE OF ANY VIS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AROUND 09Z-13Z
THURSDAY WITH MPV IN THE BEST SPOT TO GET SOME BRIEF AND
INCONSISTENT SUNRISE SURPRISE IFR FOG. WINDS WILL START TO PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z-16Z THURSDAY, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT SHOULD BE LIGHT, BELOW 10 KNOTS, AND HAVE A SLIGHT
TERRAIN INFLUENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
TONIGHT, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY RESULT IN NEAR RECORD
DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE ADIRONDACK AIRPORT IN SARANAC
LAKE. ALSO, INCOMING HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
APPROACH DAILY RECORD VALUES. THE MOST LIKELY DATES FOR RECORDS
WILL BE OCTOBER 5TH AND OCTOBER 6TH. BELOW ARE LIKELY RECORDS
UNDER THREAT (SITE FORECAST WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE RECORD)...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 2:
KSLK: 22/1947
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
OCTOBER 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ006-008-010-
011-019>021.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
016>018.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035-087.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...STORM
CLIMATE...BTV
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