713
FXUS61 KBTV 020659
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING COOL TODAY, BUT WARMING
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. TODAY WILL BE COOL AGAIN, BUT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
NOTABLY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TODAY AND SWITCH MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH. TONIGHT, SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AS RIDGE WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE ELEVATED FROM A WEAKLY
COMPOUNDED GRADIENT. WHAT'S A LITTLE UNCLEAR WILL BE FROST
CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE MARGINAL WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S LEAVING
ROOM FOR DEW POINTS TO RISE ABOVE 32 DEGREES. AS SUCH, FROST
COULD BE RELEGATED TO TYPICALLY COLDEST HOLLOWS. FRIDAY WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FAVORED TO
INCREASE AMPLITUDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING, MODEL TRENDS FOR AN APPROACHING WAVE
HAVE BEEN TO SHUNT TO WAVE MUCH MORE NORTHWARD. AS SUCH,
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE AIRMASSES WILL BE DISPLACED MORE
NORTHWARD KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL RATHER THAN PREVIOUS
PROJECTIONS OF A 5-10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 142 AM EDT THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL
REIGN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING US DRY,
MOSTLY SUNNY, AND VERY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE,
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY OCTOBER. AT
NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S, ALSO
QUITE MILD (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE OVERALL WARM AIR MASS SITTING
OVERHEAD. WHILE CLEAR SKIES MAY HELP WITH RADIATION VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WE'LL SEE A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND, DRY AIR,
AND NO RECENT RAIN TO HELP IT ALONG.
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS MODELS
PROJECT A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TO MID
WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
OCCURRING TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE TIME FRAME OF PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK
WITH EACH RUN. AFTER THIS COLD FRONT, WE'LL SEE AN INFLUX OF MUCH
COOLER AIR AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS. LOW DEW POINTS, NO RAIN IN THE PAST 24+ HOURS, AND
SOME SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS KEEP FOG CONFIDENCE LOW
THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER'S
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SHALLOW FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT SLK AND
MPV, AND ADDED EFK AS WELL CONSIDERING HOW YESTERDAY MORNING
WENT FOR THEM PLUS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED. HIGHEST
CHANCE OF ANY VIS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AROUND 09Z-13Z
THURSDAY WITH MPV IN THE BEST SPOT TO GET SOME BRIEF AND
INCONSISTENT SUNRISE SURPRISE IFR FOG. WINDS WILL START TO PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z-16Z THURSDAY, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT SHOULD BE LIGHT, BELOW 10 KNOTS, AND HAVE A SLIGHT
TERRAIN INFLUENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
TONIGHT, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY RESULT IN NEAR RECORD
DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE ADIRONDACK AIRPORT IN SARANAC
LAKE. ALSO, INCOMING HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
APPROACH DAILY RECORD VALUES. THE MOST LIKELY DATES FOR RECORDS
WILL BE OCTOBER 5TH AND OCTOBER 6TH. BELOW ARE LIKELY RECORDS
UNDER THREAT (SITE FORECAST WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE RECORD)...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 2:
KSLK: 22/1947
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
OCTOBER 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ006-008-010-
011-019>021.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
016>018.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035-087.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...STORM
CLIMATE...BTV
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