640
FXUS61 KBTV 022323
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO
NEAR DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
NIGHTTIME FOG OR FROST EACH NIGHT. MAINLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS RIDGE WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE ELEVATED FROM
A WEAKLY COMPOUNDED GRADIENT. FROST CHANCES ARE A LITTLE
UNCLEAR, BUT FEEL IT WILL BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO AVOID ANOTHER
FROST HEADLINE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S LEAVING ROOM FOR DEW POINTS TO
RISE ABOVE 32 DEGREES. FROST SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO TYPICALLY
COLDEST HOLLOWS. FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND COPIOUS SUNSHINE. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS TONIGHT, MAINLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER THOUGH, SO COULD POSSIBLY SEE MORE EXPANSIVE FOG
FORMATION THOUGH WILL BE ANOTHER DAY REMOVED FROM RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM EDT THURSDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND A WARMER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. WITH THE
RIDGE AMPLIFYING, MODEL TRENDS FOR AN APPROACHING WAVE HAVE BEEN
TO SHUNT THE WAVE MUCH MORE NORTHWARD. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE
AIRMASSES WILL BE DISPLACED MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL RATHER THAN PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS OF A
5-10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 158 PM EDT THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING USHER IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S, WHICH IS NEARLY 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY OCTOBER, WITH
SOME DAILY RECORDS POSSIBLY IN JEOPARDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE WARM SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOK TO ARRIVE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
RAIN, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE, AS IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST SHOWS A 50% TO 70%
CHANCE OF THE REGION RECEIVING A HALF INCH OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, COOLER CONDITIONS AND
DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MPV. GIVEN SIMILAR EXPECTED
CONDITIONS TONIGHT FROM LAST NIGHT, PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS MPV
MAY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. ONE
LIMITATION WILL BE AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
SOME FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH ONLY USED A TEMPO TO 3SM WITH
CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 12Z. BY 15Z, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL SITES AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT PBG/BTV FROM CHANNELING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT SLK/MSS. CLEAR
SKIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
INCOMING HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH
DAILY RECORD VALUES. THE MOST LIKELY DATES FOR RECORDS WILL BE
OCTOBER 5TH AND 6TH. BELOW ARE LIKELY RECORDS UNDER THREAT (SITE
FORECAST WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE RECORD).
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
OCTOBER 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...DANZIG
CLIMATE...BTV
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