926
FXUS61 KBTV 030639
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
239 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO
NEAR DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 229 AM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
SHARPLY FROM RECENT COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 70S TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER 70S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CORRESPONDINGLY, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS WELL WITH NO FURTHER POTENTIAL
FOR FROST THIS WEEK. LOW WILL DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S
TONIGHT WITH VALLEY FOG BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS WINDS ALOFT
SLOW.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 229 AM EDT FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB AND
SOUTHERLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LOWS ARE PROJECTED IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S IN GENERAL AS HIGHS ARE FAVORED TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WENT A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHILE LOWERING DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL HIGH RH BIASES DURING THESE TYPES OF WARMING TRENDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 229 AM EDT FRIDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING USHER IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S, WHICH IS NEARLY 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY OCTOBER, WITH
SOME DAILY RECORDS POSSIBLY IN JEOPARDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE WARM SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOK TO ARRIVE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
RAIN, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE, AS IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST SHOWS A 50% TO 70%
CHANCE OF THE REGION RECEIVING A HALF INCH OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, COOLER CONDITIONS AND
DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. BY 15Z, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL SITES AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT PBG/BTV FROM CHANNELING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT SLK/MSS. CLEAR
SKIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
INCOMING HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH
DAILY RECORD VALUES. THE MOST LIKELY DATES FOR RECORDS WILL BE
OCTOBER 5TH AND 6TH. BELOW ARE LIKELY RECORDS UNDER THREAT (SITE
FORECAST WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE RECORD).
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
OCTOBER 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...DANZIG/VERASAMY
CLIMATE...BTV
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