737
FXUS61 KBTV 031103
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO
NEAR DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 229 AM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
SHARPLY FROM RECENT COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 70S TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER 70S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CORRESPONDINGLY, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS WELL WITH NO FURTHER POTENTIAL
FOR FROST THIS WEEK. LOW WILL DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S
TONIGHT WITH VALLEY FOG BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS WINDS ALOFT
SLOW.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 229 AM EDT FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB AND
SOUTHERLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LOWS ARE PROJECTED IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S IN GENERAL AS HIGHS ARE FAVORED TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WENT A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHILE LOWERING DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL HIGH RH BIASES DURING THESE TYPES OF WARMING TRENDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 249 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, WHICH WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE SUMMER AND NOT EARLY OCTOBER.
MONDAY'S HIGHS COULD COME LOSE TO KNOCKING OFF SOME DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE FINNALLY RETREAT TO THE EAST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST NBM RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE AREA HAS A
50% - 60% CHANCE OF SEEING A HALF INCH OF RAIN. WHILE THIS WILL DO
LITTLE TO HELP OUR DOUGHT CONDITIONS, IT WILL BE WELCOME. THE
DOWNSIDE IS THAT IT LOOKS THE BE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THAT
WE WILL SEE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MPV,
SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z, BUT WILL
OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 08Z. EFK COULD ALSO SEE SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THERE, SO HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE IT OUT. BY 15Z, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL SITES AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT PBG/BTV FROM CHANNELING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT SLK/MSS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
INCOMING HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH
DAILY RECORD VALUES. THE MOST LIKELY DATES FOR RECORDS WILL BE
OCTOBER 5TH AND 6TH. BELOW ARE LIKELY RECORDS UNDER THREAT (SITE
FORECAST WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE RECORD).
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
OCTOBER 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...VERASAMY
AVIATION...VERASAMY
CLIMATE...BTV
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