393
FXUS61 KBTV 041058
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 239 AM EDT SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE GRADIENT,
SO SOME LIGHT BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ON LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RIDGE CRESTS TONIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 21C AND WILL SUPPORT EVEN WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW/MID 80S. DAILY TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 5TH WILL BE
IN JEOPARDY UNDER THIS PATTERN. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED WELL BELOW MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND TO
OFFSET MODEL BIASES OF BEING TOO MOIST IN DROUGHT AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES. RH WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE
30-40% RANGE EXACERBATING ONGOING DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 239 AM EDT SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UNDER A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. WHILE 925MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECREASE,
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMER THAN SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE AT DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS; HIGHS FAVORED
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S. WINDS WERE INCREASED OVER
BLENDED GUIDANCE VALUES BY INJECTING SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE TO
CAPTURE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF DEW
POINTS FOLLOW RECENT TRENDS OF REMAINING LOWER THAN USUAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 304 AM EDT SATURDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY RETREAT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NBM
RUNS THE SYSTEM HAVING A STRONG DEFINED LINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH. NBM STILL SHOWING CHANCES OF UP TO 70% OF
SEEING 0.50" OF RAINFALL, WITH AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING CLOSER TO AN
INCH. STILL, DESPITE THE WELCOME RAIN, THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP
OUR OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
NEXT WEEKEND MIGHT HOLD A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS,
BUT AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MID CLOUD AND SOME ELEVATED WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY HAVE KEPT FOG AT BAY FOR AREA
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AFTER 16Z, EXCEPT AT PBG
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL OVERCOME THE WEAK GRADIENT AND DRIVE A
SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHT WIND. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH MUCH
CALMER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 23Z WITH SOME POTENITAL FOR
MIST/FOG AT SLK/MPV PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, BUT CERTAINTY IS
LOW GIVEN VERY DRY SOIL/ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
INCOMING HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH
DAILY RECORD VALUES. THE MOST LIKELY DATES FOR RECORDS WILL BE
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH AND MONDAY OCTOBER 6TH. BELOW ARE SOME OF THE
DAILY RECORDS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN (CURRENT FORECAST
WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE RECORD).
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
KSLK: 83/2023
OCTOBER 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
KSLK: 80/1946
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD/KREMER
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...VERASAMY
AVIATION...BOYD/VERASAMY
CLIMATE...BTV
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