041
FXUS61 KBTV 041805
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
SOME DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW AND
MONDAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOK TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS TODAY
OVERHEAD, AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW DECENT WAA WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW SURGING
TO 20-21C, LEADING TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS TODAY COULD
REACH NEAR 80 ACROSS VERMONT, AND BY TOMORROW INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DAILY HIGH RECORDS FOR
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY UNDER THIS PATTERN, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE TO BREAK DAILY HIGH RECORDS TOMORROW OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT IN THE 50S
WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGH LOWS FOR A FEW CLIMATE SITES.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW, HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO HIGHER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 30-40% THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST MINIMUM RH TODAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY, AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
AS THE RIDGE PEAKS TODAY AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOMORROW, THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GRADIENT FLOW, WITH WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
AND ON THE BREEZY SIDE NEAR 10 MPH. CHANNELED FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE CALM WINDS TONIGHT.
CHANNELED FLOW WILL RETURN TOMORROW MORNING AS IT DID TODAY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH WINDS AROUND THE LAKE 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND
FROM THIS WEEKEND WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 20-21C RANGE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND UPPER 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE WARM, THOUGH NOT AS
WARM AS SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING INCREASED
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TO DRAMATICALLY DRY OUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO A GOOD DEWPOINT BOMB SCENARIO. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MONDAY WILL DROP TO NEAR 30% AREAWIDE WITH SOME
25-30% NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNDER POTENTIAL DEWPOINT BOMBS. THE
BEST DEWPOINT BOMB CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS VERMONT EAST OF THE
GREENS AS DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS WILL AID MIXING IN ADDITION TO
LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THAN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. MIXING MONDAY
WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. GUSTS 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY, WITH SIMILAR GUSTS POSSIBLE IN VERMONT,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE EFFICIENT MIXING AND LOWER RH VALUES.
NBM GUIDANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HANDLE THIS MIXING NOR WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WELL, THUS SOME WINDS MAY BE INCREASED ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. THESE LOW, NEAR-CRITICAL RH
VALUES, AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS, COULD LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (20-30%) BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 304 AM EDT SATURDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY RETREAT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NBM
RUNS THE SYSTEM HAVING A STRONG DEFINED LINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH. NBM STILL SHOWING CHANCES OF UP TO 70% OF
SEEING 0.50" OF RAINFALL, WITH AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING CLOSER TO AN
INCH. STILL, DESPITE THE WELCOME RAIN, THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP
OUR OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
NEXT WEEKEND MIGHT HOLD A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS,
BUT AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MID CLOUD AND SOME ELEVATED WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY HAVE KEPT FOG AT BAY FOR AREA
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AFTER 16Z, EXCEPT AT PBG
WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL OVERCOME THE WEAK GRADIENT AND DRIVE A
SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHT WIND. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH MUCH
CALMER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 23Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MIST/FOG AT SLK/MPV PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, BUT CERTAINTY IS
LOW GIVEN VERY DRY SOIL/ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
INCOMING HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH DAILY
RECORD VALUES. THE MOST LIKELY DATES FOR RECORDS WILL BE SUNDAY
OCTOBER 5TH AND MONDAY OCTOBER 6TH. BELOW ARE SOME OF THE DAILY
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN (CURRENT FORECAST AT OR WITHIN 3
DEGREES OF THE RECORD).
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
KSLK: 83/2023
OCTOBER 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
KSLK: 80/1946
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 5:
KPBG: 56/1973
OCTOBER 6:
KBTV: 64/1937
OCTOBER 7:
KBTV: 62/1947
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...VERASAMY
AVIATION...BOYD/VERASAMY
CLIMATE...BTV
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