925
FXUS61 KBTV 071852
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AN END TO THE
RECORD HEAT. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH FROSTS AND FREEZES LIKELY IN MANY PLACES
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 251 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS STILL BACK NEAR OTTAWA. WHILE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE, IT IS BECOMING MUCH LESS LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PROVIDING EVERYONE A WETTING RAIN. A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING WHICH WILL CAUSE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG
WINDS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. A VORT PIVOTS ITS WAY
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IT MAY CAUSE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AT THE SUMMITS WILL BE FALLING TO
AROUND AND BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS TIME SO A FEW FLAKES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS. LINGERING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW MAY PREVENT ANY FROST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DESPITE TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO AROUND AND BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 251 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE FIFTIES FOR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND FREEZING, SUMMITS WILL STAY AROUND AND BELOW FREEZING ALL
DAY. HOWEVER, DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXITS QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SO NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD
COVER COULD CAUSE SOME RIME ICE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, CLEARING THE SKIES AND EVENTUALLY CALMING THE WINDS. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIKELY THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD FROST
AND FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FROST IS POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 251 PM EDT TUESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP QUITE CHILLY
BENEATH A RATHER STRONG 1035MB HIGH. HOWEVER, IT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE BRINGING SOUTH FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. WE WILL MODERATE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT OUR SEASONAL
NORMS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE COOL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED, WHICH WILL RESULT IN UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ONCE
AGAIN.
BEYOND FRIDAY, OUR WEATHER WILL BE GOVERNED BY A COMPLEX SET OF
INTERACTIONS THAT TAKE PLACE. A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL DECAY AND SHUFFLE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WHERE IT WILL
LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BY SATURDAY, A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL REACH
THE GREAT LAKES. THE EVOLUTION OF THAT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
ITSELF COULD ALSO BE A COMPLICATED PROCESS AS A VORT GETS PINCHED
OFF BETWEEN AN EJECTING VORT MAX ACROSS CANADA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
SMALL FEATURES AND COMPLEX PROCESSES YIELD A CERTAIN LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, THE RANGE OF MODEL SCENARIOS ARE RELATIVELY
SIMILAR. ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL FAVOR DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL SPIN
ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN CLOSE OFF BY SUNDAY. AS IT INTENSIFIES, IT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. MOISTURE WILL EJECT
NORTHWARDS WITH AN EFFICIENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT. HOWEVER, AN UPPER
HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE, WHICH WILL
PRODUCE RISING PRESSURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE IMPARTING EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WOULD REINFORCE DRY AIR AND EFFECTIVELY HALT
THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION.
THE PROBABILITIES OF MEANINGFUL RAIN FROM A COMBINATION OF NBM AND
RAW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS THAN 15% CHANCES FOR GREATER
THAN 0.25" OF PRECIPITATION. SO THIS ONE APPEARS TO MISS US, BUT
WE'LL SEE IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET SOMETHING IF THE INTERACTION OF
THE TWO UPPER LOWS BRINGS PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH. THE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD IS NOT OVERLY COOL, AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF AVERAGE, UNLESS RAIN MAKES IT NORTHWARD.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN IS SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. IT'S REACHING KMSS, AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILINGS EMBEDDED. MORE CONSISTENT REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR BEYOND 22Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE EXPAND THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WIND SPEEDS OF 7 TO 13 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OF 17 TO 22 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE. RAIN RATES WILL BE MOST
INTENSE ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS, WITH VISIBILITY BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z
AND 07Z RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 5SM AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. A SHARP WIND SHIFT WILL IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE HEAVIEST
RAIN 01Z TO 08Z, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUSTAINED, HIGHEST AT KPBG AND KBTV.
WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW AT KEFK, KMPV, AND KRUT,
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FOR LLWS AS 2000 FT AGL WINDS WILL BE ABOUT
30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM 00Z TO 06Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TOWARDS
800-1500 FT AGL BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. RAIN WILL EXIT NORTHERN NEW
YORK BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND EXITS VERMONT ABOUT 13Z AND 16Z.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY TREND BACK TO VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
BRIEFLY ABATE AFTER THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT, BUT WILL BEGIN TO REACH
ABOVE 7 KNOTS AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. AREAS FROST.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
BROAD LAKE. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT
THEM TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THEY SWITCH
TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE, THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET, THOUGH 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MYSKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...HAYNES
MARINE...WFO BTV
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