389
FXUS61 KBTV 080951
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
551 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. AFTER A STRETCH OF RECORD HEAT, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH FROSTS AND FREEZES
LIKELY IN MANY PLACES OVERNIGHT. QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 548 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 0.5
AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT, WITH
SOME AMOUNTS NEAR 2.0 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT,
COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION UNDER BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON THE THE RECENT
RECORD- BREAKING WARMTH THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A FEW POSSIBLE FLAKES AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT ELEVATED WINDS AND SOME POSSIBLE
LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER HOW COLD LOCATIONS GET AND ANY
FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 222 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S.
THESE SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVERHEAD, ALLOWING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCATIONS
NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOME OF THE COLDEST HALLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM, SUCH AS SARANAC LAKE, MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE
TEENS. WITH SUCH COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, HEADLINES
RELATED TO THE FROST/FREEZE WILL BE NEEDED OUTSIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE THE PROGRAM IS STILL ACTIVE.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE QUITE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 222 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD, IT BELIES
THE COMPLEX PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD, BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DOES
SO. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A 1024MB HIGH SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THE COMPLICATED INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL DICTATE WHETHER WE SEE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, OR IF WE STAY DRY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DROPPING THE UPPER
LOW SOUTHEASTWARD AND ALLOWING IT TO CAPTURE THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRAW IT NORTHWARD TO NEAR LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN
RAIN SPREADING OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRONG HIGH IN PLACE,
SHUNTING LOW PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPING RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. DO NOTE THAT MOST OF THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FAVOR THE SECONDARY SOLUTION, WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING AN
NORTHERN OUTLIER, EVEN AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
NBM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, LIMITING POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND OVER MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. EITHER WAY,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MIX OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO SEE AT
LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH 10Z AS THE
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOWERS TREND LIGHTER
THEREAFTER, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z-14Z. CEILINGS LIFT TO
VFR ONCE THE RAIN ENDS, AND EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS 3500-6000 FT TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NW WINDS OF 5-10
KT BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THOUGH GUSTS MAY SUBSIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS 08Z-14Z AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN KBTV. GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. AREAS FROST.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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