330  
FXUS61 KBTV 161140  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
740 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE REGION STAYS  
SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM SLOW TO DEPART TO OUR EAST. AS LOWER HUMIDITY COINCIDES  
WITH GUSTIER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATING  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHARP  
WARMING AND SOUTH WINDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR  
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 213 AM EDT THURSDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE  
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TODAY, HAVING IMPACTS ON BOTH LAKE  
CHAMPLAIN AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. (SEE MARINE AND FIRE  
WEATHER SECTIONS BELOW.) SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY, WITH  
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS  
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION  
COINCIDING WITH THIS RISK OF FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH.  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR SOME FROST  
FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY,  
THOUGH WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION AS  
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S,  
WARMEST ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOME AREAS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR  
FREEZE WARNING, BUT DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS AT THIS  
TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO  
MID 50S, THEN A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW  
50S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS TODAY WITH  
GRADIENT RELAXING AS LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND  
COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 213 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL  
BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FLOW WILL  
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AND ALSO AT THE  
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER  
30S WITH FROST HEADLINES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WARMING TREND ON  
SATURDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WILL BRING MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURES UP TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 213 AM EDT THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE FROM THE  
PERSISTENT DRYNESS LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE  
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD SATURDAY  
NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. A LONG WAVE TROUGH  
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS  
MERIDIONAL FLOW BECOMES ACCELERATED UNDER A DEVELOPING 250MB  
JET. AMPLIFICATION SHOULD LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING RIDGE WITH A DEVELOPING  
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO  
GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION CORRIDOR,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS  
30 MPH ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS IN THE  
SURROUNDING VALLEY LOCATIONS AND RIDGE TOPS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL  
ALSO INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC  
FAVORING GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO SUNDAY.  
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE  
DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE RIDGING TAKES TO DEPART THE REGION.  
ALL IN ALL, RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, FROM  
NORTHERN NEW YORK TO VERMONT, OVER THE COURSE OF SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (70-80%) WILL BE EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY  
MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED  
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, ALTHOUGH CAPE  
PROFILES ARE GENERALLY SHALLOW. THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL  
OCCLUDE AND PULL TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF  
RIDGING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
GOOD ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS POINTS TO A CONTINUED PERIOD OF  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH  
ANOTHER AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION IN  
THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY BE DIRECTED MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST  
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIPS WITH EACH  
SYSTEM, AND WHETHER THE SUBSEQUENT FRONTS CATCH UP AND CAN PULL  
OFFSHORE MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION. UNLIKE RECENT EVENTS  
WHICH HAVE SEEN DRY AIR LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THE LEADING  
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO ERODE ANY DRY AIR FOR THE SECONDARY  
SYSTEM BY MID WEEK FOR GOOD CHANCES AT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL  
(50-60%).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL  
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERNIGHT  
INVERSION HAS BEGUN TO BREAK WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AT  
EFK/MPV/BTV. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF  
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AT  
BTV/PBG/RUT, WITH 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTS AT MSS/MPV/SLK/EFK. SCATTERED  
CEILINGS AT RUT/SLK WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AROUND 3000  
FT AGL, BEFORE MIXING SHOULD INCREASE CEILINGS ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS  
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD RELAX AND WEAKEN UNDER  
AN INVERSION AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH SKIES  
CLEARING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
MONDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED WITH MAXIMUM NORTHERLY  
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH IN PARTS OF VERMONT. WITH ONLY  
LIGHT RAIN RECENTLY, FUELS REMAIN DRY. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES WILL ONLY BE 30-40%, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND FIRE  
SPREAD WILL BE HEIGHTENED WITH THE FORECASTED NEAR CRITICAL WIND  
GUSTS. WETTING RAIN FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FROM THE  
GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY  
SUNDAY EVENING WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS  
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
AHEAD OF THIS RAIN ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN  
VALLEY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE WITH THE WETTING  
RAIN SUNDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LEADING TO CHANNELING EFFECTS  
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN ENHANCING WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS. WINDS ON  
THE BROAD LAKE ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN AND  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ARE NOT AS GUSTY, BUT WINDS ARE  
STILL SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 25  
KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY  
WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS STILL  
POSSIBLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
KTYX HAS GONE DOWN UNEXPECTEDLY, AND WILL CALL TECHNICIANS IN  
THE MORNING TO DIAGNOSE AND HOPEFULLY FIX THE ISSUE.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
VTZ001-002-005-009.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
NYZ028-035.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NEILES  
NEAR TERM...NEILES  
SHORT TERM...NEILES  
LONG TERM...DANZIG  
AVIATION...DANZIG  
FIRE WEATHER...NEILES  
MARINE...NEILES  
EQUIPMENT...NEILES  
 
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