838
FXUS61 KBTV 171116
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST; AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED WHERE WINDS SLACKEN. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN BY
MONDAY. A STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET AND COOL WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT
WITH FROST POSSIBLE GIVING THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S
FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLD HOLLOWS
OF THE DACKS TO UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WILL PROBABLY
NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MODEST
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW DOWN THE COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY, HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL ALSO HAVE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S, WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY WHERE SOME AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 50. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, BUT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO CHANNELING AND IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. A VERY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM HAS
TAKEN SHAPE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST, HAVE LOWERED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND ALSO RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY, HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...WE LOOK TO GET INTO A BIT OF AN
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO CROSS NEAR OR OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
LOW PRESSURE DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WEST TO EAST. A
50KT 850MB JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AS WELL. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES BY, WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND REMAIN
SOMEWHAT GUSTY. STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE TAMPED DOWN DURING PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN, BUT EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS WE GET DRY SLOTTED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD. OUR SECOND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME THE PARENT LOW
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, THOUGH A TRIPLE-
POINT LOW MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY AGAIN BECOME A BIT BREEZY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THOUGH THE JET DOESN'T LOOK AS STRONG AS THE PRECEDING
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THE FIRST DAY OR
TWO, BUT THEN COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN MID WEEK WITH OUR
SECOND STORM SYSTEM.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. KEFK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CEILINGS, NEAR 3500 FT,
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, FEW-SCT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SKC-FEW
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
TRENDING TO N/NW 5 TO 10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
KTYX IS OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS HAVE IDENTIFIED A HARDWARE
FAILURE AND HAVE ORDERED REPLACEMENT PARTS.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-002-005-
009.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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