854  
FXUS61 KBTV 172341  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
741 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, FEATURING LATE-SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY  
ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY WILL FOLLOW, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND CLOUDIER  
CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT WITH  
LITTLE IMPACT ON ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 224 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. A NEW (AND FINAL FOR THE SEASON) FROST ADVISORY HAS  
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOLLOWING A NIGHT IN WHICH  
TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, LARGELY SIMILAR LOWS  
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, A LITTLE BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO PRESENCE OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS THAT  
ARE EVIDENT ALREADY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, ESPECIALLY AS ONE GOES  
WESTWARD. THINK THE HREF CLOUD PRODUCT IS CAPTURING THESE  
OBSERVATIONS WELL, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF THICKER  
CLOUDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT MAY BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH AND/OR THIN  
OUT ENOUGH THAT MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STILL SEES  
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION. GENERALLY THIS  
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT COLDEST CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN  
VERMONT TONIGHT, WITH LESS COLD CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK  
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP  
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH INCOMING PRESSURE FALLS AND  
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS  
CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL FALL APART AS IT  
ENTERS NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY IN THE MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL  
VIRGA OR BRIEF, LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FALLING OUT OF HIGH  
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN MID-ALTITUDE MOISTURE IS  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ASIDE FROM THIS CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS  
THE AREA, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COMMON, AND WITH LIMITED  
COOLING OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND BREEZINESS, LOWS  
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 222 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A MUCH STORMIER  
PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WE WILL BE FIRMLY IN  
THE WARM AND WINDY PART OF A LARGE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL,  
BECOMING EASILY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE NONE  
OF THE DATA IS OFF THE CHARTS IN TERMS OF EXTREMES, A FEW ITEMS  
TO NOTE. THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SEE SOME OF THE MOST  
IMPRESSIVE WARMTH ASSOCIATED WITH TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS AS  
SHALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BELOW A  
SOUTHWESTERLY JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH DAILY RECORDS  
AND 80 DEGREES (GREATER THAN 30% CHANCE) LOCALLY IN THIS REGION,  
OR TYPICAL LATE AUGUST CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL TEND TO BE TYPICAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER IN THE UPPER 60S TO  
MID 70S.  
 
WITH REGARDS TO WIND GUST MAGNITUDE, THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL  
BE SET UP VERY WELL TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS  
EASILY 30-35 MPH BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MODEL FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST DATA IS TAMER THAN  
PREVIOUS RUNS. IDEAL CHANNELING WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS  
LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS; IN FACT, BY  
DAYBREAK LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE BROAD WATERS IS  
EXPECTED. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX HIGHLIGHTS WINDS IN THE  
WESTERN VALLEY ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN IN PARTICULAR. GENERALLY  
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH DURING THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION ARE VERY  
LIKELY (MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM THE UPPER VALLEY ARE AT LEAST  
80%). WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL  
WIND, HAVE BOOSTED MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS IN THE NORTHERN/WESTERN  
ADIRONDACKS. AS AN EXAMPLE, IN MALONE DURING THE EARLY EVENING  
MODELED WINDS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH DESCEND TO BELOW 3000 FEET  
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL, LEADING TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE  
STRONGER GUSTS PUSHING 40 MPH AT THE SURFACE. THAT BEING SAID,  
TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH OF THE STRONG WINDS  
ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN A LARGE SCALE WARM AIR  
ADVECTION PATTERN, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.  
 
BY LATE IN THE DAY, SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN NEW YORK  
WITH ONLY UP TO A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN BY 8 PM IN FAR WESTERN AREAS.  
THEREAFTER, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME WET ACROSS NEW YORK AND MUCH OF  
VERMONT, WITH LOWEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM  
(ALTHOUGH STILL GREATER THAN 50%). BECAUSE THE INCOMING TROUGH IS  
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED, A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS  
WILL TEND TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT  
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT COULD INDEED SEE LITTLE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD. HAVE ALSO NOTED TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST MODEL  
GUIDANCE, WITH MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A  
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF RAIN THAT HAS BEEN FAVORED BY EAGLE  
(EXPERIMENTAL AI GLOBAL AND LIMITED-AREA ENSEMBLE FORECAST  
SYSTEM). WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE A MONDAY EVENT  
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 147 PM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE REGION  
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG IT. IT  
SHOULD CAUSE A PERIOD OF STEADY TO HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY. WHILE A FEW  
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE, THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. WHILE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN, A DRY  
SLOT LOOKS TO DEVELOP AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS SO THERE WILL BE  
BREAKS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY  
AND IT SHOULD KEEP THE DAY MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERS THE  
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS,  
PARTICULARLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLDER  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE HIGHEST SUMMITS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND  
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, SO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS UP THERE ARE  
LOOKING INCREASING LIKELY. GENERAL TROUGHINESS LOOKS TO CONTINUE  
INTO THE WEEKEND SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A CLOUDY AND MORE UNSETTLED  
STRETCH. AS A POSITIVE, THE DREARY CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVENT  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS DO NOT LOOK TO BE  
HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF A DENT IN THE DROUGHT. THROUGH MOST OF  
NEXT WEEKEND, THE GEFS/EPS/CAN COMBINED ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF  
SEEING MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT, SO  
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS, TOTALS WILL NOT BE OVERLY  
HIGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIODS WITH ONLY SOME VIRGA AS POSSIBLE SENSIBLE  
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS A RELATIVE WARM  
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL  
BECOME SOUTHERLY SATURDAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. SOME MINOR  
GUSTS TO 15KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT PBG AS FLOW MOVES IN OFF OF LAKE  
CHAMPLAIN.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
KTYX IS TENTATIVELY BACK IN SERVICE AFTER ON-SITE REPAIRS.  
TECHNICIANS HAVE IDENTIFIED A HARDWARE FAILURE AND HAVE ORDERED  
REPLACEMENT PARTS.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-009.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF  
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF  
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF  
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
AVIATION...BOYD  
EQUIPMENT...BTV  
 
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