609  
FXUS61 KBTV 181745  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TODAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, ALONG WITH THE START OF  
A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FEATURING  
LATE-SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.  
WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FOLLOW, ALONG WITH A  
RETURN TO COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS NEXT  
WEEK WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS,  
BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 931 AM EDT SATURDAY...RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WEAK RETURNS  
ENTERING THE SLV ATTM, SO HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE  
15 TO 25% RANGE TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT MOST OF THESE  
RETURNS TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN NY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS  
AS A SURFACE WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.  
OTHERWISE, DID TWEAK CLOUD GRIDS TO INCREASE COVERAGE THRU THE  
MORNING HOURS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:  
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY  
INTO TONIGHT, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS  
UP TO OUR WEST IN THE MEANTIME, LEADING TO MAINLY JUST INCREASED  
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NY. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE  
BEEN NOTED ON RADAR ALREADY THIS MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE DRY  
AIRMASS THAT'S IN PLACE, DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH PRECIPITATION,  
PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT MOST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS  
WILL PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AND  
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE REGION. AFTER A  
CHILLY START TO THE DAY, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN  
THE 60S IN MOST SPOTS. THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL  
LIMIT COOLING, SO DON'T ANTICIPATE TONIGHT TO BE AS COLD AS THE  
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS WILL MAINLY IN THE 40S, THOUGH SOME  
OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREENS AND IN THE  
ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 148 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST ON  
SUNDAY, SETTING US UP FOR A MILD AND BREEZY DAY AHEAD OF A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM INCOMING FROM THE WEST. IT'S A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR  
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CHANNELING UNDER A LOW INVERSION.  
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY,  
ALONG WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS,  
WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS PERHAPS APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES. GUSTS  
SHOULD RAMP UP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY, BUT THEY COULD  
PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE  
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE THERE (MORE  
ON THIS BELOW). WHILE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE  
DAY, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND ANY FIRES THAT  
START COULD QUICKLY BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.  
 
THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WILL BE WARM  
TEMPERATURES, MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER IN SOME LOCATIONS RATHER  
THAN MID FALL. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN PARTICULAR WILL BE QUITE  
MILD OWING TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS; NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE  
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND PERHAPS  
CLOSE TO 80F. ELSEWHERE, IT WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM BUT STILL VERY  
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW/MID 70S.  
 
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY WELL TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE, THE  
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEGATIVELY  
TILTED, EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL  
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT AND UPPER  
TROUGH, AND EXPECT A SWATH OF RAIN TO PUSH EASTWARD IN RESPONSE.  
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, IT WILL TAKE A WHILE  
FOR THE COLUMN TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO REACH  
THE GROUND, BUT EXPECT RAIN TO FINALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NY NEAR OR  
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO VT BY DAYBREAK  
MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW ON MONDAY AS A TRIPLE-POINT LOW  
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, THOUGH THERE  
MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF DRIER AIR  
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THE RAIN COULD BE MODERATE  
TO BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LOW, A FEW RUMBLES  
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH EXPECTED COVERAGE (OR LACK  
THEREOF) WAS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD ABATE SOMEWHAT WITH THE  
STEADIER PRECIPITATION, BUT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF WE DO SEE ANY DRIER BREAKS. RAINFALL TOTALS  
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OVER  
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO A HALF INCH TO 1.25 INCH ELSEWHERE; THE  
HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PEAKS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF  
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD  
POOL ALOFT, MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN SUNDAY, THOUGH  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WHICH IS STILL NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 144 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY  
MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND IN THE  
ADIRONDACKS AS A DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILED TROUGH EXISTS TO THE  
NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE  
SYSTEM ACTUALLY DEPARTS BETWEEN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY  
EVENING, BUT REGARDLESS BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT  
WITH WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE  
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE PRIOR DAYS RAIN,  
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL RIVER VALLEYS.  
 
A LARGER UPPER LOW WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING LOW,  
HOWEVER, BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIKE THE PRIOR SYSTEM, IT WILL  
ACQUIRE A NEGATIVELY TILTED APPEARANCE WHICH WILL AID IN INCREASED  
SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. AN  
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY  
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWING, MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE  
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEGATIVE TILTING OF THE TROUGH  
WILL ALSO HELP IN THE MOVEMENT OF A VORT MAX DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS  
OF EASTERN VERMONT WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE  
POINT LOW AND CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  
RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION LOOKS INCREASINGLY  
FAVORABLE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST  
KINGDOM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS DEVELOPING LOW  
DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, CYCLONIC FLOW FROM  
OCCLUDING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
THE 540DAM THICKNESS LINE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO  
SWING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE STRONG OCCLUSION  
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOW SUB FREEZING  
VALUES WHICH WOULD INDICATE POSSIBLE SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN  
SUMMITS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODEL  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FREEZING LEVEL COULD BE AS LOW AS 1500 FT,  
HOWEVER, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT ABLE TO COOL OFF AS  
EFFICIENTLY, SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESIDE AT 2500 FT OR HIGHER.  
WHICH IS TO SAY, PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW ATOP MOUNTAIN  
SUMMITS IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
ALL IN ALL, BENEFICIAL RAIN UP TO HALF AN INCH, LIMITED TO THE  
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS, WILL HELP TO STABILIZE MANY  
DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS. ALTHOUGH, IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO  
LEAD TO ANY DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE  
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE 50S DURING THE DAY WITH A RANGE OF  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING  
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND AT  
TIMES VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CLOUDS GENERALLY  
4000-6000 FT AGL ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE  
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT THROUGH 00-  
03Z VARYING BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN AT TIMES. SKIES WILL  
GENERALLY TEND TOWARDS CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A LOW-  
LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO PREVAILING  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL QUICKLY  
INCREASE TOMORROW BY 14-16Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, AND  
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY  
AT BTV/PBG/EFK/MPV. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE  
DAY TOMORROW.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO  
30 KT. DEFINITE SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING FOR VTZ030>035.  
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING FOR NYZ202-205.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS  
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/TABER  
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS  
LONG TERM...DANZIG  
AVIATION...DANZIG  
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