409  
FXUS61 KBTV 200206  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
1006 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
LOCALIZED GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS, ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL ARRIVE TOWARD  
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SPREAD INTO MOST OF VERMONT BY  
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS  
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED  
GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MUCH LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. A  
COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WORK  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 955 PM EDT SUNDAY...ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN  
CANCELED AT THIS HOUR, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH WIND  
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND  
VERMONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 50KT WINDS ARE EVIDENT ON  
WIND SENSORS AT PEAK LEVELS OF THE ADIRONDACKS SUGGESTING THE  
LOW LEVEL JET IS MOVING THROUGH NOW. THIS IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH  
EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. EXPECT THIS JET TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH  
THE NIGHT BRINGING SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO THE WEST SLOPES OF  
THE GREENS BEFORE RAINFALL SPREADS WEST TO EAST.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS AFTN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE  
DEVELOPED WITH BTV GUSTING TO 40 MPH, CHAZY 36 MPH, AND EDWARDS  
TO 34 MPH, WHILE MIN RH'S ARE NEAR 30% OVER MANY SITES IN  
NORTHERN NY AND IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.  
THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL  
MORE HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BEFORE RH'S IMPROVE  
TOWARD 8 PM. IN ADDITION, STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY  
WINDS FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM FROM MALONE TO ALTONA OVER NORTHERN NY  
ASSOCIATED WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 925MB WINDS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS  
AND FAVORABLE MIXING. NO CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING OR  
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  
 
GOES-19 WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF  
ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MTNS,  
WHILE POTENT S/W ENERGY OVER CENTRAL KY/TN IS ENHANCING SOME  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS ENERGY WL PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM  
ENERGY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO PRODUCE A NEGATIVELY  
TILTED MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AREA ON  
MONDAY. AS PHASING OCCURS ELONGATED SFC LOW PRES WL BE CONSOLIDATING  
AND DEEPENING OVER EASTERN NY AND LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY  
LATE AFTN. THE S/W INTERACTION, HOW QUICKLY SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS AND  
TRACK, ALONG WITH PRECIP FALLING ALL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN  
DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED  
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES AND THIS RESULTS IN LESS PRES GRADIENT  
OVER OUR CWA AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER 925MB TO 850MB WIND FIELDS. IN  
ADDITION, SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER MESSY WITH REGARDS TO MIXING DUE TO  
POTENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING DURING THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.  
GIVEN THE MIXED SIGNALS FOR A DOWNSLOPING WIND EVENT, I MADE NO  
CHANGES TO CRNT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT  
INTO MONDAY, WHERE LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WL BE POSSIBLE.  
ELSEWHERE, MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM SOUTH TO  
NORTH ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE  
ASCENT FROM A DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF, FAVORABLE BAND OF  
FGEN FORCING, AND MULTIPLE LAYER JET STRUCTURE HELPING ENHANCE DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, GIVEN LLVL JET ORIENTATION AND  
STRUCTURE, I WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING OF THE QPF  
FIELDS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND PARTS OF THE NEK OF VT. STILL  
NOTING A WEAK SLIVER OF INSTABILITY, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION  
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.  
RAINFALL TOTALS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0 INCH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS  
OVER THE EASTERN DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS.  
HIGHS 58 TO 66 ON MONDAY, WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE CPV.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 209 PM EDT SUNDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL  
CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES QUICKLY TRACK NORTHEAST OF  
OUR CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WL BECOME MOSTLY TRRN FOCUSED IN THE  
FAVORABLE WESTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS, WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING OCCURRING IN  
OTHER AREAS. HAVE UTILIZED POP ADJUST CLIMO TOOL TO FOCUS HIGHER  
POPS OVER THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT.  
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 0.15 TO 0.30 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN  
THE UPPER 30S TO MID UPPER 40S. TUES WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE TRIES  
TO BUILD IN BETWEEN OUR TWO SYSTEMS WITH A MOSTLY DRY DAY  
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS WL WARM BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH  
SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN  
CONTINUES WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING ON TUES NIGHT WITH  
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEP CLOSED  
MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH MULTIPLE  
EMBEDDED TROFS/SHORT WAVES ROTATING ACRS OUR CWA. THIS WL KEEP OUR  
CWA UNSETTLED WITH COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY FILTERING INTO OUR REGION  
BY MID TO LATE WEEK.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 203 PM EDT SUNDAY...A LARGE OCCLUDING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE  
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A  
STRONG STREAM OF ENERGY CONNECTED INTO THE ATLANTIC ENHANCING  
MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES, A VORT MAX WILL  
SWING EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM LEADING TO CONVERGENCE AND  
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY SPURRING THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW. RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE AND  
PRECIPITATION LOOKS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ACROSS EASTERN  
VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO PUSH THE MAIN AXIS  
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE  
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES FOR VERMONT. AS THIS DEVELOPING LOW  
DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, CYCLONIC FLOW FROM  
OCCLUDING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS, MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO IN ST. LAWRENCE  
COUNTY COULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND  
CLOUDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  
 
THE 540DAM THICKNESS LINE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO  
SWING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE STRONG OCCLUSION  
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOW NEAR TO SUB  
FREEZING VALUES WHICH WOULD INDICATE POSSIBLE SNOW ACROSS THE  
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY.  
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FREEZING LEVEL COULD BE AS LOW AS 1500  
FT, HOWEVER, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT ABLE TO COOL OFF AS  
EFFICIENTLY, SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESIDE AT 2500 FT OR HIGHER.  
WHICH IS TO SAY, PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW ATOP MOUNTAIN  
SUMMITS IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
ALL IN ALL, BENEFICIAL RAIN UP TO HALF AN INCH, LIMITED TO THE  
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS, WILL HELP TO STABILIZE MANY  
DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS. ALTHOUGH, IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO  
LEAD TO ANY DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE  
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE 50S DURING THE DAY WITH A RANGE OF  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND LLWS WILL BE THE PRIMARY  
THREAT TO AVIATORS AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRACKS WEST TO EAST ACROSS  
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. WHILE WINDS AT THE SFC ARE  
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS, SPEEDS HAVE ONLY  
INCREASED ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND LLWS INCREASING  
TONIGHT. TIMING HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FOR LOWERING CIGS/VIS DUE TO  
RAIN AND INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECTING 08-12Z FOR START OF  
RAINFALL WITH 12-18Z LOWERING OF CIGS. IFR CHANCES SHOOT UP  
DRAMATICALLY ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAINFALL INTENSITY BEING THE  
LIKELY METHOD OF REDUCTIONS. BTV CAN EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR MAINLY  
12-16Z BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. CIGS WILL LARGELY BE MVFR  
EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LOWER  
CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE UP TO 25KTS FOR THE INITIAL  
HOURS, INCREASING TO 35KTS POTENTIALLY FOR BTV/PBG AS THE LOW  
LEVEL JET TRACKS EASTWARD. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR  
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE  
GREEN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT SUGGESTING TURBULENCE TO BE MODERATE-  
SEVERE AT TIMES. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD AFTER 21Z, CIGS  
WILL LIKELY LOWER AS FLOW TURNS WESTERLY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW  
REMAINING ALOFT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE  
SHRA.  
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR  
SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  
WAVE WILL BE BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET WITH HIGHER SWELLS POSSIBLE IN  
THE OPEN WATERS.  
 
 
   
EQUIPMENT  
 
THE TYX RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AFTER A HARDWARE  
FAILURE OCCURRED. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND WILL  
BE INSTALLED.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ016>018.  
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ027-028-030-031.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...TABER  
NEAR TERM...TABER  
SHORT TERM...TABER  
LONG TERM...DANZIG  
AVIATION...BOYD  
FIRE WEATHER...BTV  
MARINE...BTV  
EQUIPMENT...BTV  
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