351  
FXUS61 KBTV 200607  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
207 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WIND AND WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE  
EARLY ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH.  
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
SUBSIDE. WE WILL TRANSITION FROM WARM, HUMID RAINS TO A COOL  
RAIN. OUR PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE COOL  
AND UNSETTLED, AND MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE  
WEEK FOR SOME SUMMIT LEVEL SNOW.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 204 AM EDT MONDAY...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11  
AM FOR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH.  
 
ASSESSING THE WIND FORECAST, MOST GUSTS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK RANGED  
FROM 35 TO 45 MPH WITH A FEW REPORTED BRANCHES AND WIRES DOWN  
AFFECTING UTILITIES. PROBABILISTIC DATA FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 48 MPH  
(THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD) HAVE DECREASED ON THE HREF. THE  
PRIMARY REASON APPEARS TO BE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE REACHING  
INTO VERMONT. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES  
STILL DEPICT NEARLY 50 KNOT WINDS AT JUST 900 FT AGL. SO ALL IT  
WOULD TAKE IS JUST A LITTLE TO BRING FASTER FLOW DOWN TOWARDS  
THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PATTERN CONFIGURATION, STILL  
THINKING THE POTENTIAL REMAINS, BUT IS CERTAINLY LOWER  
PROBABILITY THAN BEFORE.  
 
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH  
AHEAD OF A DEEP, NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. INGREDIENTS METHOD SHOWS  
A TONGUE OF 1.25-1.50" PWATS WILL BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DEEP  
MERIDIONAL FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE VERY EFFICIENTLY. IN ADDITION  
TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT, CAPE VALUES OF 200-500 J/KG WILL DEEP AS  
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPROACH. FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING  
AND INTENSE DEFORMATION SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE SHOWER  
ACTIVITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO  
TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING, THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE  
SOUTH AND EAST, BUT RAIN FILLING IN WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING  
OVERHEAD WILL STILL YIELD ABOUT 0.50-1.00", GIVE OR TAKE SOME BASED  
ON LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. WE'LL HAPPILY TAKE THE RAIN. HREF  
PROBABILITY OF 2" IN 6 HOURS IS ABOUT 10% IN SOUTHERN VERMONT, SO  
SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES COULD HAVE SOME FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ALIGNMENT  
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY.  
 
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AND CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 60S  
FOR MOST TODAY. OVERNIGHT, COOLER WEATHER IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S  
WILL DEVELOP. WE'LL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE IN THE DAY,  
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH WITH A WARM FRONT ABOUT TO  
CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON  
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 204 AM EDT MONDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF THE RAIN SHOWERS AND  
COOLER TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW  
FREEZING SO THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH  
PEAKS. SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN THE  
HIGHEST PEAKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TURNING  
SOUTHWESTERLY SO PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER  
VALLEYS MAY BE DOWNSLOPED AND MISS OUT ON SOME OF THE SHOWERS. THE  
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO BRING A  
FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 204 AM EDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION  
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE  
UPSLOPE REGIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING  
INTO SUNDAY, SO ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME COULD BE  
SNOW. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING LEVELS MAY  
FALL INTO THE 3,000 FT RANGE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING THIS  
TIME. THE STEADIES PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION  
BY THIS TIME, BUT A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD STILL BE LINGERING. WITH  
ALL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND, IT WILL BE A DREARY STRETCH  
OUTSIDE FOR MOST PEOPLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. RIDGING  
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND  
AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ITS STRENGTH AND LEVEL OF  
INFLUENCE REMAIN TO BE SEEN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...CURRENTLY, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20  
KNOTS AND GUSTS 18 TO 28 KNOTS PREVAIL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z AS RAIN  
SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. PERIODS OF LLWS LIKELY AT MOST  
TERMINALS AS 40 TO 50 KNOT SOUTH WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL PROGRESS EAST.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL FAVOR VERMONT ABOUT 12Z TO 20Z AS A SURGE OF  
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THOUGH NOT EXPRESSLY  
MENTIONED IN ANY TAF, SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. A POCKET OF  
LIGHTER WINDS IS EXPECTED AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.  
CONCURRENTLY, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TOWARDS 1500-3000 FT AGL.  
ABOUT 20-22Z, RAIN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF VERMONT, BRIEFLY.  
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,  
AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL  
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW. THIS STRIP OF RAIN WILL LIKELY  
HAVE 2-5SM VISIBILITIES, AND WE WILL OBSERVE CEILINGS FALL TOWARDS  
700-1500 FT AGL AS KSLK, KRUT, AND KMSS SWITCH TO WEST-NORTHWEST  
APPROACHING 06Z SUNDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MVFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR  
SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  
WAVE WILL BE BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET WITH HIGHER SWELLS POSSIBLE IN  
THE OPEN WATERS. STRONGER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY IN  
THE MORNING, THOUGH.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE TYX RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AFTER A HARDWARE  
FAILURE OCCURRED. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND WILL  
BE INSTALLED.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ016>018.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES  
NEAR TERM...HAYNES  
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
AVIATION...HAYNES  
MARINE...BTV  
EQUIPMENT...BTV  
 
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