447  
FXUS61 KBTV 201139  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
739 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WIND AND WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE  
EARLY ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH.  
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
SUBSIDE. WE WILL TRANSITION FROM WARM, HUMID RAINS TO A COOL  
RAIN. OUR PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE COOL  
AND UNSETTLED, AND MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE  
WEEK FOR SOME SUMMIT LEVEL SNOW.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 7031 AM EDT MONDAY...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH  
WINDS ABOVE 2000 FT HAVE INCREASED AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS,  
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN TOO STABLE. WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE HAVE  
NOT BEEN INCREASING AND RAIN IS SHIFTING INTO THE REGION. SO THE  
WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.  
 
INGREDIENTS METHOD SHOWS A TONGUE OF 1.25-1.50" PWATS WILL BACK  
INTO THE AREA WITH DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE  
VERY EFFICIENTLY. IN ADDITION TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT, CAPE  
VALUES OF 200-500 J/KG WILL DEEP AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT  
APPROACH. FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND INTENSE  
DEFORMATION SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE  
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO TONIGHT. IF  
ANYTHING, THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE SOUTH AND  
EAST, BUT RAIN FILLING IN WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL  
STILL YIELD ABOUT 0.50-1.00", GIVE OR TAKE SOME BASED ON LOCAL  
TERRAIN EFFECTS. WE'LL HAPPILY TAKE THE RAIN. HREF PROBABILITY  
OF 2" IN 6 HOURS IS ABOUT 10% IN SOUTHERN VERMONT, SO SOUTHEAST  
FACING SLOPES COULD HAVE SOME FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ALIGNMENT WITH  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY.  
 
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AND CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 60S  
FOR MOST TODAY. OVERNIGHT, COOLER WEATHER IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S  
WILL DEVELOP. WE'LL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE IN THE DAY,  
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH WITH A WARM FRONT ABOUT TO  
CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON  
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 204 AM EDT MONDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF THE RAIN SHOWERS AND  
COOLER TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW  
FREEZING SO THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH  
PEAKS. SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN THE  
HIGHEST PEAKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TURNING  
SOUTHWESTERLY SO PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER  
VALLEYS MAY BE DOWNSLOPED AND MISS OUT ON SOME OF THE SHOWERS. THE  
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO BRING A  
FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 204 AM EDT MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION  
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE  
UPSLOPE REGIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING  
INTO SUNDAY, SO ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME COULD BE  
SNOW. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING LEVELS MAY  
FALL INTO THE 3,000 FT RANGE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING THIS  
TIME. THE STEADIES PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION  
BY THIS TIME, BUT A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD STILL BE LINGERING. WITH  
ALL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND, IT WILL BE A DREARY STRETCH  
OUTSIDE FOR MOST PEOPLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. RIDGING  
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND  
AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ITS STRENGTH AND LEVEL OF  
INFLUENCE REMAIN TO BE SEEN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHWARDS INTO VERMONT  
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE'S A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS,  
MAINLY EAST OF THE GREENS, BUT ALSO BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST OF  
THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S LINGERING LLWS  
ACROSS VERMONT AS 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL LIFT  
NORTHWARDS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS WILL  
INCREASE OVER THE AREA, FOCUSING ACROSS VERMONT FROM ABOUT 14Z  
TO 21Z, AND GREATEST OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM 22Z TO 04Z.  
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 2-5SM AT  
TIMES. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPLICITLY  
MENTIONED SINCE THE ODDS ARE LOW. AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH,  
LINGERING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS  
FALLING TO 600-2000 FT AGL AS WINDS TREND SOUTHWEST TO WEST-  
NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS  
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER KMSS AND KSLK BEYOND  
00Z AS WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 35 TO 40  
KNOTS. RAIN SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER  
BY 12Z TUESDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE TYX RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AFTER A HARDWARE  
FAILURE OCCURRED. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND WILL  
BE INSTALLED.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES  
NEAR TERM...HAYNES  
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
AVIATION...HAYNES  
EQUIPMENT...BTV  
 
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