859  
FXUS61 KBTV 202300  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT  
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY  
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS THIS  
EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY, BEFORE ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS REDEVELOP BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND  
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK  
AHEAD.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 654 PM EDT MONDAY...THE LOW'S CENTER IS TRACKING ACROSS  
ESSEX COUNTY, NY AND ADDISON/RUTLAND COUNTIES OF VERMONT  
ALLOWING FOR INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTING IN SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH 10 PM TO KEEP  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONGOING UNTIL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION  
OFFSETS FORCING. THE CHANCES WERE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO  
SOUTHERN CHITTENDEN COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDSOR COUNTY AS WELL.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE VARIED GREATLY  
TODAY ACRS OUR CWA FROM AMOUNTS NEAR 0.10" TO LOCALIZED VALUES  
OVER 1.20" NEAR THE WESTERN SLOPES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF  
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE TO PIVOT FROM SOUTHEAST TO  
NORTHWEST ACRS OUR CWA, AS DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF CONTS TO  
EVOLVE. RAP13 ANALYSIS PLACES CLOSED 7H/5H CIRCULATION NEAR KALB  
WITH DEEP MOIST CONVEYOR BELT OF SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE  
ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA. AS SYSTEM CONTS TO MATURE OVER THE NEXT  
1 TO 3 HOURS, EXPECT A BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/COMMAHEAD OF PRECIP  
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NY AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO OUR CWA  
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POCKETS OF CAPE BTWN 250-400  
J/KG THRU THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW EMBEDDED  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THIS IDEA IS CONFIRMED BY LATEST LIGHTNING  
DATA SHOWING A FEW STRIKES ON BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD  
OF POTENT S/W ENERGY. ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WL BE CAPABLE OF  
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GIVEN PWS BTWN 1.0 AND 1.25". AS  
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION DEVELOPS WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW  
EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS OF VT.  
ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE 0.25 TO 0.75" OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED  
AMOUNTS OF 0.75" TO 1.25" LIKELY IN FAVORABLE TRRN FOCUSED  
AREAS. FEEL NBM IS WAY TOO QUICK IN LIFTING PRECIP/MOISTURE OUT  
OF OUR CWA ON TUES MORNING, GIVEN CLOSED CYCLONIC SYSTEM, SO I  
HAVE CARRIED LIKELY/CAT POPS THRU 12Z AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF BY  
18Z TUES. ADDITIONAL QPF CAN BE EXPECTED THRU 15Z ALONG THE  
WESTERN SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS AND EASTERN CPV ON TUES MORNING.  
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TONIGHT WARM BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER  
60S ON TUES. ALSO, A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 45  
MPH ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING ACRS THE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF  
THE DACKS, ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 250 PM EDT MONDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT CLOSED  
MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT  
LAKES WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED S/W'S AND BOUNDARIES IMPACTS OUR CWA  
THRU WEDS NIGHT. THIS WL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN FOR  
MIDWEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LIKELY, BUT QPF WL BE  
LIGHTER GIVEN PWS DROPPING INTO THE 0.50 TO 0.75". IN ADDITION,  
QPF/POPS WL BECOME MORE TRRN FOCUSED FOR MIDWEEK GIVEN WIND SPEED  
AND DIRECTION AND POSITION OF CLOSED SYSTEM. INITIALLY OUR CWA WL BE  
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE LOW, BUT EVENTUALLY PROGGED 850MB TEMPS  
DROP BELOW 0C, SUPPORTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH SUMMIT SNOW  
BY 12Z THURS. THE FREEZING LEVELS ARE NEAR 4000 FT, SO NO IMPACTS  
AND JUST A VERY MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. PROGGED 850MB  
TEMPS HOVERING EITHER SIDE OF 0C IS NOT GREAT FOR INDIVIDUALS  
LOOKING FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN MID/LATE OCT. OTHERWISE, TEMPS ARE  
MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDS AND COOL INTO THE MID 30S  
TO MID 40S ON WEDS NIGHT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 250 PM EDT MONDAY...A LARGE SCALE GYRE WILL CONTINUE TO  
CYCLONICALLY ROTATE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA WITH MULTIPLE  
SHORTWAVES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED. CYCLONIC  
FLOW WILL USHER IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEK WITH RELATIVELY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 20S TO 30S.  
 
SYSTEM WISE, CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY  
WHICH MEANS WE WILL BE TALKING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. LAKE  
ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15C WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 3-  
4C. THIS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE  
LAKE FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THAT  
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AND  
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NEW YORK. THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL  
REMAIN ON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW. WEAK SHORTWAVES BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION, WITH BETTER CHANCES IN  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. 925MB  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND FREEZING SO WET SNOW ATOP THE MOUNTAIN  
SUMMITS REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE WILL  
SEE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE BOTH  
SPOTTY AND LOW DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE  
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL GYRE WILL GRADUALLY DEPART TO THE  
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVES TRAILING, BUT  
SIGNALS OF DRIER WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE BY THE LATE WEEKEND WITH  
MORE ZONAL FLOW.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MIX OF  
CATEGORIES FROM VFR TO IFR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.  
AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD TRACK OF THE  
LOW, IFR CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALSO, SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
FORMED AT THE LOW'S CENTER AND COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF  
RUT THROUGH 04Z. LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY  
WITH VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS AND STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT. AFTER  
12Z THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL DIMINISH WITH CIGS RISING RAPIDLY  
AFTER 15Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE  
SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
 
 
   
EQUIPMENT  
 
THE TYX RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AFTER A HARDWARE  
FAILURE OCCURRED. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND WILL  
BE INSTALLED.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...TABER  
NEAR TERM...BOYD/TABER  
SHORT TERM...TABER  
LONG TERM...DANZIG  
AVIATION...BOYD  
EQUIPMENT...BTV  
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