093  
FXUS61 KBTV 211734  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
134 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS LOW PRESSURE  
SHIFTS AWAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER  
60S ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. A LARGE  
UPPER LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH RENEWED  
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. DRY  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DURING EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 223 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE LOW PRESSURE  
JUST SOUTHEAST OF MONTREAL AND RADAR SUGGESTS THE MID-LEVEL  
CIRCULATION RESIDES SOMEWHERE NEAR HIGHGATE AS OF 2 AM. BENEFICIAL  
SOAKING RAINS HAS PRODUCED 0.50- 1.00" ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN  
NEW YORK AND 1.50-2.50" ALONG GREENS, THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY,  
AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. EMBEDDED IN WESTERN SLOPES  
OF THE GREENS, A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING OBSERVATIONS AS HIGH AS  
~3.50" OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. PLATTSBURGH HAS ALSO OBSERVED A  
DAILY RECORD FOR RAIN FOR OCTOBER 20TH. BEFORE LOW PRESSURE SHUFFLES  
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING, WE COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER FEW  
HUNDREDTHS IN AREAS SHELTERED FROM NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT ABOUT  
0.10-0.50" FOR MOST EVERYONE ELSE, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST SLOPES.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL TREND COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVERHEAD AND  
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESSES DECREASE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AS WELL FOR A  
SMALL PORTION OF THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN APPROACHING  
TONIGHT, AND SO RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN HEADING INTO  
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ON THE ORDER OF 200-400  
J/KG OF CAPE. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODEST SYNOPTIC  
FORCING FOR ASCENT, WE COULD SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AGAIN  
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RAIN SHOWERS LIFT NORTH. EASTERN  
VERMONT HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE  
ALONG VERMONT WILL FAVOR A SURGE OF RAIN MOVING UP THE CONNECTICUT  
RIVER. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THE DEEP, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME  
AS THIS LAST EVENT, NOR WILL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGER AS LONG. SO  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE IN THE REALM OF 0.10-0.50"  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 223 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SIT  
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY WITH SUB-540 THICKNESSES FOR 1000-500MB.  
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY  
DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK AT SUMMIT LEVELS. FORECAST TRENDS FOR  
SNOW LEVELS HAVE COME UP, BUT AT ABOUT 3700-4000 FT ELEVATION,  
OUR SUMMITS ARE STILL IN LINE TO OBSERVE THEIR FIRST  
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE A  
COOL, SHOWERY DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 223 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION  
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BRING MORE  
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES, BUT THE OVERALL GENERAL TREND WILL  
BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE DURATION, AMOUNTS WILL BE  
RELATIVELY LIGHT. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THE  
UPSLOPE AREAS, BUT CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN A QUARTER  
INCH ARE ONLY AROUND 25 PERCENT THERE. FORECAST 925 MILLIBAR TEMPS  
NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO  
SINK INTO THE 3,000-4,000 RANGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS  
GENERALLY INDICATE THEY COULD DROP A BIT LOWER. SOME ADK TOWNS COULD  
OBTAIN THEIR FIRST FLAKES OF THE YEAR. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE THE  
BEGINNING OF A MORE SEASONABLE STRETCH. AFTERWARDS A VERY STRONG  
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND  
START OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE AND THE NEXT STORM  
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL  
SITES THIS AFTN, OTHER THAN LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT EFK WHICH  
WILL IMPROVE BY 20Z. AVIATION CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF RAIN  
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN MOSTLY VFR  
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN  
THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. EVENTUALLY AS WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE  
SOUTHWEST, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT OUR MOUNTAIN SITES  
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT  
SLK/MPV AND EFK WITH A 20 TO 25% OF BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.  
REST OF OUR TAF SITES SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY VFR. WINDS WILL BE  
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS  
POSSIBLE, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.  
SATURDAY: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE TYX RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AFTER A HARDWARE  
FAILURE OCCURRED. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND WILL  
BE INSTALLED. THERE IS NO ETA ON ITS RETURN TO SERVICE.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES  
NEAR TERM...HAYNES  
SHORT TERM...HAYNES  
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
AVIATION...TABER  
EQUIPMENT...BTV  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab NY Page Main Text Page