819  
FXUS61 KBTV 211846  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
246 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE  
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW  
PRESSURE AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING  
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND GRAUPEL, THEN  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOW  
PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTING  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ENHANCED BY THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND TAKES PLACE.  
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 246 PM EDT TUESDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER IS HERE THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND  
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING BEHIND THE LAST ONE. A BAND OF CLOUDS  
IS RACING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA, WITH OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING  
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THICKENING CLOUDS OVER TIME. WHILE THERE  
ARE SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEW YORK, THIS ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUCH THAT WHILE BRIEF, LIGHT RAIN IS  
POSSIBLE, MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY AS THE SHOWERS MOVE  
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS EVENING AND FURTHER SHRIVEL  
UP.  
 
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN BLOSSOMING TO OUR  
SOUTH TONIGHT, PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING  
INCLUDING PRESSURE FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF THE INCOMING TROUGH EAST  
OF THE APPALACHIANS SPINE. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRAW  
THE STEADIER RAIN INTO EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH  
RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FARTHER WEST WITH TIME (AT LEAST A 66%  
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN 2-8 AM AREAWIDE).  
 
THE MAIN WEATHER OF NOTE FOR TOMORROW REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS, AGAIN MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS ANOTHER DEEPENING  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. THE  
LATEST HREF MEAN INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT, WITH SURFACE  
BASED CAPE INCREASING QUICKLY INTO THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE BY  
MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORM RISK FOLLOWS PRIMARILY FROM MID MORNING  
HOURS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, GENERALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH  
TIME. WE'RE THINKING THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS LACKLUSTER SUCH  
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE DISORGANIZED, BUT THE STRONG UPPER  
LEVEL FORCING AND OVERLAP OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY  
FAVORS EASTERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER  
VALLEY PER EFI CAPE-SHEAR ANOMALY, FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER  
STORMS ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. AS TYPICAL FOR WARM SEASON  
THUNDERSTORMS, CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE VARYING LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES AND ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THINK  
AN AVERAGE BETWEEN HRRR AND NAM3 WILL BE A DECENT APPROXIMATION.  
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GOING FOR CONVECTION GIVEN LOW WET BULB  
ZERO HEIGHTS AND HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS, SUCH THAT POTENTIAL  
HAZARDS WOULD BE GRAUPEL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH  
GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 40 MPH). THESE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES RULE OUT  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUCH AS WHAT WE SAW ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH  
BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL STILL OCCUR IN THE STORM CORES.  
 
SHARPLY LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN LOOK REASONABLE AS WE  
MOVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY DROPPING OFF IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
AREA, WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW STILL INCOMING. FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK IN IN  
PRECIPITATION, TOMORROW NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING DOWNWIND  
OF LAKE ONTARIO TO IDEAL CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE  
LAKE'S LONG AXIS, AND WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT  
DOWNSTREAM, SHOWERS WILL TEND TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK  
WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY. AS COLDER UPPER LEVEL AIR  
MOVES EASTWARD, THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL LOWER TO SUPPORT A  
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS TOWARDS  
MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES PER MODEL  
CONSENSUS OF 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING  
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF WET, COLD, AND  
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS  
FOR THOSE RECREATING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE TO  
LATE PART OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS THE FIRST WINTRY WEATHER OF  
THE SEASON OCCURS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 246 PM EDT TUESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY OF LAKE-  
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR SPILLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES  
AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS (ROUGHLY 240 DEGREES) TRANSPORT BANDS  
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND DOWNWIND AT TIMES INTO PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN VERMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TYPICAL COLD SEASON  
TYPE OF SHOWERS WITH SHALLOW CLOUD TOPS, SO THE THUNDER RISK IS  
VERY LOW (PEAKING AT 10% IN SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY). SNOW  
LEVELS STILL LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR OUR HIGHEST PEAKS  
TO SEE THEIR FIRST, WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THE SEASON. 850  
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IS NOT  
UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, NEAR THE 30TH PERCENTILE, BUT  
COMBINED WITH THE PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON OUR  
MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL TEND TO BE AS YOU GO  
SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE MORNING, WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN  
925-850 MILLIBARS MAY BE UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.  
 
SOME OF THE LATEST DATA SHOWS YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A WEAK  
SURFACE FRONT, HELPING TO ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR  
REGION. MEANWHILE, LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS  
LEADS TO EXPANSION OF SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT, ESPECIALLY  
NORTHWESTERN AREAS INTO THE NORTHERN GREENS BUT ALSO FARTHER  
EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL, QUITE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER  
PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF SHOWER CHANCES.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUIET SEASONABLE, RANGING FROM THE 40S TO  
MID 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE VALLEYS, SLOWLY SETTLING  
COOLER AFTER DARK AND MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 246 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS IS DIRECTLY  
OVERHEAD AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH POTENT S/W ENERGY NEAR THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS ENERGY COMBINED WITH POCKET OF  
ENHANCED 850MB TO 500MB RH>80% WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS  
ACRS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF WL BE ACRS THE  
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. I HAVE UTILIZED ADJUST POP BASED ON  
CLIMO TOOL TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS, WHILE DRIER  
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. 1000-500MB  
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE VALUES IN THE 530 TO 537 DAM RANGE,  
WHILE 850MB TEMPS ARE BTWN -3C TO +2C, SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF  
SLUSHY WET SNOW ABOVE ROUGHLY 3000 FEET ON FRIDAY MORNING.  
MODEST CAA PREVAILS MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS PROGGED 850MB  
TEMPS FALL BTWN -3C AND -6C BY 00Z SAT, WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR  
0C, SO A FEW FLAKES POSSIBLE DOWN TO 2000 FEET ACRS THE NORTHERN  
MTNS. ANY ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR SO WOULD BE CONFINED TO  
ABOVE 2800 FEET ON FRIDAY AFTN. ALSO, UTILIZED THE MOUNTAIN  
ADJUST MAX T TOOL TO HIGHLIGHT COOLER TEMPS IN THE MTNS BOTH  
FRIDAY AND SAT, SUPPORTED BY THE NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. THIS  
INDICATES HIGHS L/M 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S SATURDAY,  
WHILE VALLEYS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. ANY  
LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH  
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM  
925MB TO 700MB ON SATURDAY AND LINGERING MOISTURE, WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED IF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP PERSISTS  
INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  
EVENTUALLY SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH AN  
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MOST  
OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IS ANTICIPATED  
FROM DAILY HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS, GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL  
SITES THIS AFTN, OTHER THAN LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT EFK WHICH  
WILL IMPROVE BY 20Z. AVIATION CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF RAIN  
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN MOSTLY VFR  
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN  
THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. EVENTUALLY AS WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE  
SOUTHWEST, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT OUR MOUNTAIN SITES  
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT  
SLK/MPV AND EFK WITH A 20 TO 25% OF BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.  
REST OF OUR TAF SITES SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY VFR. WINDS WILL BE  
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS  
POSSIBLE, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.  
SATURDAY: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
 
 
   
EQUIPMENT  
 
THE TYX RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AFTER A HARDWARE  
FAILURE OCCURRED. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND WILL  
BE INSTALLED. THERE IS NO ETA ON ITS RETURN TO SERVICE.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF  
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF  
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF  
LONG TERM...TABER  
AVIATION...TABER  
EQUIPMENT...BTV  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab NY Page
Main Text Page