583  
FXUS61 KBTV 221818  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
218 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE  
UPPER LOW BUILDS INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS MORNING  
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND GRAUPEL, THEN  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS ENHANCED BY THE LAKES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND TAKES PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 208 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING UP FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE REGION. IT IS HELPING INVIGORATE SOME SHOWERS  
OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEY ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO  
THE REGION. THE STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY OVER  
VERMONT DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PUSH  
THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND IT LOOKS TO HAVE STRONGER DYNAMICS.  
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DIURNAL HEATING BEFORE ITS PASSAGE. ITS  
ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO  
VERMONT FOR THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY  
MODESTLY INCREASES AHEAD OF IT. THEREFORE, SOME CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. SOME PEA SIZED HAIL AND GRAUPEL ARE  
POSSIBLE, AND PEA SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SEVERAL AREAS  
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM A SIMILAR FEATURE THIS EVENING.  
COOLING TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO  
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS, AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE  
EXPECTED GOING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT  
WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND THEM INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WHERE  
LOCALLY SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED.  
THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS EXIT TONIGHT BUT LINGERING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN  
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 208 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
STATIONED OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND IT  
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THESE WILL BE INVIGORATED A BIT  
AS A COUPLE VORTS PIVOT AROUND THE LOW. THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY  
COOL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND  
FREEZING. THIS WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN INTO THE INTO MANY OF THE  
MIDSLOPES, AND A FEW FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE TOWNS  
IN THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY  
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST PLACES, THOUGH THE HIGH PEAKS  
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AND BELOW FREEZING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 217 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND  
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GYRE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR UPPER LOW AND  
SHORTWAVES LATE THIS WEEK, WILL WILL DRIFT EASTWARD, WITH A DIVING  
UPPER LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME SCATTERED NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RAIN  
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH DRIER NORTHWEST AIR  
ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM. WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING  
BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 2000FT AGL, WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER, SOME  
FLAKES MAY BE ABLE TO FALL, HOWEVER, THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL WITH  
ONLY ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
STILL ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE DIVING UPPER LOW, THE LAKE EFFECT  
CLOUDS AND SHOWER AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARDS OUT OF OUR REGION WITH  
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE  
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE  
RELATIVELY SEASONABLE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK NEAR 50, WITH A  
WEAK WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP TO  
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THERE ARE SOME GOOD SIGNALS FOR STRONG  
RADITIONAL COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, IF THE AREA CAN CLEAR  
OUT UNDER THE UPPER LOW. LOWS INTO THE LOW 20S COULD BE POSSIBLE IN  
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEK.  
 
BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE  
EVOLUTION OF THE MONDAY UPPER LOW WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE. ENSEMBLES  
VARY IN THE POTENTIAL BREAK DOWN OF THIS RIDGE BY MID WEEK WHICH HAS  
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND WHETHER IT  
WILL RETROGRADE EAST, OR STALL OUT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SOLUTION  
FAVORING A RETROGRADING SYSTEM WOULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO  
OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WHEREAS A SOLUTION WITH A  
STRONGER RIDGE, SHOWS A MUCH DRIER WEEK AHEAD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS, SO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO  
CYCLONICALLY ROTATE OVERHEAD, SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS  
ARE PUSHING THROUGH VERMONT AND NEW YORK. A BAND OF LIGHT TO  
MODERATE THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO  
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IMPACTS WILL BE  
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS  
TO 2SM. MVFR CEILINGS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 1300-  
2700FT AGL BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. THE BAND SHOULD REACH EFK BY 19Z.  
BEHIND THIS BAND OF THUNDERSHOWERS, TRENDS WILL BE TOWARDS VFR AT  
ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND  
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT SLK AND MSS BASED ON FORECAST WIND  
DIRECTIONS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS  
WILL LEAD TO CEILINGS AT PBG/RUT/BTV AROUND 4000FT AGL. LAKE EFFECT  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK WITH CYCLONICALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AT MSS. OUTSIDE OF SLK/MSS, TERMINALS TOMORROW SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY  
FROM CHANNELED FLOW AND OVERALL SCATTERED VFR CEILINGS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHSN, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE TYX RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AFTER A HARDWARE  
FAILURE OCCURRED. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND WILL  
BE INSTALLED. THERE IS NO ETA ON ITS RETURN TO SERVICE.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MYSKOWSKI  
NEAR TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
LONG TERM...DANZIG  
AVIATION...DANZIG  
EQUIPMENT...BTV  
 
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