850  
FXUS61 KBTV 221859  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A PATTERN TYPICAL OF WINTER WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE  
REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES  
BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES SUPPORTING LIGHT  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. CONDITIONS WILL TREND  
DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 228 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCITING WEATHER EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL, PARTICULARLY IN  
CHITTENDEN COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE SUPPORTED BY A  
RIBBON OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT  
COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLY ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS THAT  
DEVELOPED IN EASTERN NEW YORK, BUT PRECIPITATION HAS RACED  
NORTHWARD, IT HAS MORPHED INTO A LESS IMPRESSIVE AREA OF RAIN  
SHOWERS. MOVING FORWARD, RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER,  
ALTHOUGH THROUGH TOMORROW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN OUR  
REGION.  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE  
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
PLENTIFUL SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND IT. MOST NOTEWORTHY IS ITS  
SOUTHERN FLANK WHERE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS CREATING  
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PERSISTENT LAKE BAND OVER LAKE ERIE.  
THIS PATTERN IS INDUCING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK  
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO, BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE CELLULAR  
RATHER THAN BANDED, ASSOCIATED WITH MORE WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT AS  
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN  
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, WINDS UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TO  
SUPPORT A LAKE BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO, AND THIS MOISTURE WILL  
THEN BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF ST.  
LAWRENCE COUNTY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THEREAFTER INTO THE MORNING AS  
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD, THE BAND WILL  
SHIFT SOUTHWARDS, BRINGING SHOWERS INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN  
FRANKLIN COUNTY, NY, BEFORE SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA.  
 
THEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD  
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT, SHOWERS SHOULD BLOSSOM  
WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE  
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. RAIN CHANCES IN  
VERMONT (55-90% IN MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT) WILL BE MARKEDLY  
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE MORNING DUE TO THIS  
FORCING, AND SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF  
SNOW AT OUR HIGHEST SUMMITS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COOL AIR  
ADVECTION WILL KICK IN EARNESTLY ON WESTERLY FLOW, AND SNOW  
LEVELS WILL FALL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 259 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN  
IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STUCK OVER THE  
REGION. AS SUCH, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. HOWEVER,  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN ON THURSDAY WHILE  
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY  
FORECAST, AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LOWER BUT PRECIPITATION  
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE TOO  
DRY FOR ANYTHING AS SHOWERS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION, BUT  
ENSEMBLE SCENARIOS BROADLY SHOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH HIGHER  
TERRAIN MORE LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT PER NBM START TO INCREASE IN  
THE ADIRONDACKS BELOW THE HIGHEST SUMMITS; FOR SOME FOLKS IN  
THIS REGION IT COULD BE A PERIOD TO WATCH IF WE DO HAVE SOME  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGER.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 217 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND  
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GYRE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR UPPER LOW AND  
SHORTWAVES LATE THIS WEEK, WILL WILL DRIFT EASTWARD, WITH A DIVING  
UPPER LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME SCATTERED NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RAIN  
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH DRIER NORTHWEST AIR  
ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM. WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FALLING  
BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 2000FT AGL, WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER, SOME  
FLAKES MAY BE ABLE TO FALL, HOWEVER, THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL WITH  
ONLY ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
STILL ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE DIVING UPPER LOW, THE LAKE EFFECT  
CLOUDS AND SHOWER AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARDS OUT OF OUR REGION WITH  
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE  
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE  
RELATIVELY SEASONABLE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK NEAR 50, WITH A  
WEAK WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP TO  
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THERE ARE SOME GOOD SIGNALS FOR STRONG  
RADITIONAL COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, IF THE AREA CAN CLEAR  
OUT UNDER THE UPPER LOW. LOWS INTO THE LOW 20S COULD BE POSSIBLE IN  
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEK.  
 
BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE  
EVOLUTION OF THE MONDAY UPPER LOW WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE. ENSEMBLES  
VARY IN THE POTENTIAL BREAK DOWN OF THIS RIDGE BY MID WEEK WHICH HAS  
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND WHETHER IT  
WILL RETROGRADE EAST, OR STALL OUT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SOLUTION  
FAVORING A RETROGRADING SYSTEM WOULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO  
OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WHEREAS A SOLUTION WITH A  
STRONGER RIDGE, SHOWS A MUCH DRIER WEEK AHEAD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS, SO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR  
FORECAST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO  
CYCLONICALLY ROTATE OVERHEAD, SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS  
ARE PUSHING THROUGH VERMONT AND NEW YORK. A BAND OF LIGHT TO  
MODERATE THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO  
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IMPACTS WILL BE  
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS  
TO 2SM. MVFR CEILINGS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 1300-  
2700FT AGL BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. THE BAND SHOULD REACH EFK BY 19Z.  
BEHIND THIS BAND OF THUNDERSHOWERS, TRENDS WILL BE TOWARDS VFR AT  
ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND  
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT SLK AND MSS BASED ON FORECAST WIND  
DIRECTIONS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS  
WILL LEAD TO CEILINGS AT PBG/RUT/BTV AROUND 4000FT AGL. LAKE EFFECT  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK WITH CYCLONICALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AT MSS. OUTSIDE OF SLK/MSS, TERMINALS TOMORROW SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY  
FROM CHANNELED FLOW AND OVERALL SCATTERED VFR CEILINGS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHSN, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
 
 
   
EQUIPMENT  
 
THE TYX RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AFTER A HARDWARE  
FAILURE OCCURRED. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND WILL  
BE INSTALLED. THERE IS NO ETA ON ITS RETURN TO SERVICE.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF  
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF  
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF  
LONG TERM...DANZIG  
AVIATION...DANZIG  
EQUIPMENT...BTV  
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