991
FXUS61 KBTV 010538
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND
WITH OCCASIONAL VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. AN ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 1500 FT TODAY. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY, THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY AS WE'VE SEEN
RECENTLY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
GASPE PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST TODAY. AS SUCH, WE'LL REMAIN UNDER BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. UPSLOPE
RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
MID MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
MOISTURE LESSENS AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS. AREA WEBCAMS ALREADY
SHOW A FEW INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FT. THESE AREAS MIGHT SEE A BIT OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION TODAY, BUT DON'T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT
THIS POINT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND CT VALLEYS. HOWEVER, WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER,
EVEN IN AREAS THAT MIGHT SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE HIGHER SUMMITS IN
PARTICULAR WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
GREENS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM, TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THE WIDER VALLEYS SHOULD SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO
THE MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SATURDAY...WE'LL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERY
WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS WE GET A BIT OF RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE, WITH NORTHERN AREAS TRENDING MORE
TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE.
WE'LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM STRONGER WINDS, AS WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE 10 MPH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
HITTING 50F. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NY/NEW
ENGLAND, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH THE BULK OF THE
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S, SO
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
THOUGH THE HIGHEST SUMMITS MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY.
IT'LL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO CHANNELING OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL RACE EAST MONDAY NIGHT,
AND IT MAY ALREADY BE EXITING THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.
EVEN ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES, LINGERING VORTICITY ADVECTION, COOLING
CONDITIONS ALOFT, AND STRONG WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN
SLOPES. CHANNELED FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE REGION,
AND SO CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CAN'T BE DISCOUNTED IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY IF FLOW HAS A BIT MORE OF SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAN
PRESENTLY INDICATED. TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE TEMPERATUREWISE, BUT
WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS, IT'S GOING TO FEEL COOLER. WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS, BUT SHOULD FEATURE MORE AGREEABLE
WEATHER WITHOUT THE WIND.
WE STILL REMAIN POISED TO SEE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN ENSEMBLES.
SOME SCENARIOS DEPICT THE LOW FAILING TO CONSOLIDATE AND SLIDING
SOUTH WHILE OTHER SCENARIOS FEATURE A VIGOROUS LOW WITH ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION. THE DISTURBANCE IN QUESTION IS OUTSIDE THE REGION OF
BETTER DATA COLLECTION, AND SO WE'LL HAVE BETTER DATA TO WORK WITH
SOON ENOUGH. NBM ADEQUATELY DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS FOR NEXT FRIDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM TRACKING NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...POCKETS OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING TOWARDS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL REMAIN BETWEEN 40
TO 50 KNOTS. REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KSLK FROM LIGHT SNOW AND LLWS
WILL TAPER OFF ABOUT 08Z-10Z. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1500-3000 FT AGL, EXCEPT
LIKELY REMAINING VFR AT KBTV AND KPBG. BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 7 TO 14 KNOTS, INTERMITTENTLY 15-20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 20
TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY. BY ABOUT 22Z-00Z SUNDAY,
TRENDS WILL FAVOR VFR, EXCEPT AT KSLK, AND THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL
TREND TOWARDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THEY WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE
TODAY, THOUGH GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON.
THEREFORE, THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL STAY IN PLACE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WAVES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...HAYNES
MARINE...BTV
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