346
FXUS61 KBTV 012339
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING WARMER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 232 PM EDT SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE 500MB FLOW REMAINS
MOSTLY ZONAL. COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH
FLOW OUT OF THE WEST; LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 20S
TO LOW/MID 30S DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. THE PATTERN
TRANSITION WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES TOMORROW WHILE ALLOWING FOR BREEZES TO
DROP. WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DISRUPTED BY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. BEST CHANCES TO BUST THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 20S FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S
WILL BE EAST OF THE GREENS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF WIND INCREASES AND ANY SLOWER ONSET WILL
SUPPORT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 232 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE MONDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT EXCEEDING 30 MPH WITH SURFACE
GUSTS 20-25 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE MIXING WILL
BE STRONGEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS, BUT RAIN CHANCES SHARPLY INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AFTER NOON FOR
LOCATIONS IN VERMONT. A FAST MOVING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM RELATED TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER END OF THE
SPECTRUM, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25". IT SHOULD BE NOTED, THAT
MODEL TRENDS FOR AN EARLIER SYSTEM APPROACH HAVE CONTINUED WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES NOW BEFORE NOON FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR VERMONT. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS PROBABLE FOR HIGHER
SUMMITS ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NEUTRAL TO COOL AIR ADVECTION
ANTICIPATED KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 232 PM EDT SATURDAY...A FEW RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT DRY AIR ENTERS QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SO ANYTHING SHOULD BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES. A PERIOD OF ELEVATION DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ANY PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. EARLY ESTIMATES OF SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE IN THE 2,000 TO
3,000 FOOT RANGE BUT THOSE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION AND THE ABILITY OF THE COLDER AIR TO CATCH UP
WITH THE SYSTEM IN TIME. A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH A PROJECTED
TRACK TO THE WEST AND PLENTY OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT, IT
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL RAIN. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS STRETCH
SHOULD END UP AVERAGING AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KSLK, KEFK AND
POSSIBLY KMPV WHICH COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. THE
CEILINGS SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT AT KMPV, AND KEFK FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WHILE KSLK WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR UNTIL WELL AFTER
SUNRISE. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP
OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO 5-10 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL STAY IN PLACE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WAVES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI/VERASAMY
MARINE...BTV
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