147
FXUS61 KBTV 021829
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY PLEASANT, BUT SOMEWHAT COOL, WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER, BUT
MAYBE NOT NOTICEABLY SO DUE TO GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
DEVELOPING AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 35 TO 45 MPH BRIEFLY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN
ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A FAST MOVING FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. LITTLE COOLING WILL HAPPEN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
FOLLOWED BY A TRAIN OF SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 123 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY FAILING TO RISE ABOVE 50 FOR ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHERNMOST LOCATIONS, BUT IT'LL BE OVERALL PLEASANT AS OVERCAST
SKIES TREND MORE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY 5 TO 10 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN SHELTERED
BASINS, BUT MOST WILL STAY IN THE 30S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 123 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY ITSELF WILL BE WARMER IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60, BUT IT'LL BE LESS PLEASANT AS GUSTS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH. FLOW WILL BE FASTEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORTUNATELY,
RAIN WILL BEGIN ADVANCING BEFORE WE CAN DEVELOP BETTER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, THERE'S STILL PROBABLY A WINDOW FROM ABOUT
11AM-4PM ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
35 TO 45 MPH ON MONDAY.
AROUND 2PM OR SO, RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A SPEEDY FRONT. THE FRONT IS DYNAMICALLY
STRONG, BUT THE FORWARD MOTION IS SO FAST. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE ABOUT 0.05-0.25" OF PRECIPITATION BY 8AM TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE, CHANNELED PATTERN
WILL FILTER IN DRY AIR FAIRLY FAST WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
MODERATING SUCH THAT TUESDAY IS FAIRLY AVERAGE IN MID 40S TO MID
50S. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MOST THE ENTIRE AREA
AT 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 119 PM EST SUNDAY...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AS ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTS WITH SYSTEMS EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS. GIVEN THE FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT, IMPACTS WL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AND FAST
MOVEMENT. TIMING OF SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND HAS RELATIVELY LOW PREDICTABILITY ATTM, BUT IDEA OF
3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS IS HIGHLY
LIKELY. FIRST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDS WITH LOW PRES
PROGGED TO TRACK OVERHEAD ALONG DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
FAST CONFLUENT MID LVL FLOW ALOFT. A MIX OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW IS LIKELY WITH COOLER PROFILES AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS ON BACKSIDE ON WEDS NIGHT. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DOES NOT LINGER LONG WITH FAST PROGRESSION ALOFT, SO UPSLOPE
POTENTIAL WL BE LIMITED. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA ON
THURS INTO FRIDAY WITH CENTER OF 1025MB HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL
PA. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
INTERACTION, TELLS ME PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH MAYBE A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS, BUT NO IMPACTFUL
PRECIP ANTICIPATED. OUR NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND SHARPER THERMAL GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 8 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP. INITIAL SFC LOW PRES
LOOKS TO TRACK TO OUR WEST, SO MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR INITIALLY, WITH BRISK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MODERATELY STRONG WAA. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS CLIMB IN THE 6-8C
RANGE ON SAT BEFORE FROPA, SO HIGHS COULD BE IN THE 50S, BEFORE
TUMBLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. GIVEN WIND FIELDS AND
PROGGED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS, POPS/QPF AND PTYPE WL BE INFLUENCED
BY OUR COMPLEX TERRAIN AS ALWAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS WILL
BE CLOUDS, FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS AND VARYING LEVELS
OF WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE. CLOUDS AT 4000-6000 FEET AGL WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE SOME LIFTING INTO A HIGHER
DECK IS ANTICIPATED. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z AND RESTRENGTHENS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET TOWARD 18Z ON MONDAY. THIS INCREASING WIND FIELD
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE WILL CREATE AREAS OF WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS BETTER MIXING
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY MORNING LOCALIZED GUSTS 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY AT MSS AND SLK. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
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