587
FXUS61 KBTV 021914
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 11. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MORE FAST-MOVING
SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN,
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, AND BREEZES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
* GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. OUTDOOR DECOR MAY BE BLOWN AWAY
IF NOT SECURED AND A FEW WEAKENED TREES/BRANCHES MAY COME
DOWN POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES.
AS OF 151 PM EST SUNDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OUTSIDE
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN; TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LAKE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. MORE IMPACTFUL
WEATHER IS SET TO ARRIVE MONDAY AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRECEDE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 35-55KTS AT THE 850MB PRESSURE
SURFACE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SOME WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE JET STRENGTH WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE REGION. GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 11 CORRIDOR THROUGH NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND WESTERN
CLINTON COUNTIES OF NEW YORK BETWEEN 10AM AND 5PM. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT PRECIPITATION CATCHES UP WITH THE JET FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, LIKELY DAMPENING THE HIGHER END SPEEDS. STILL, OUTDOOR
DECORATIONS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN AWAY IF NOT
PROPERLY SECURE, AND A FEW WEAKER TREES MAY COME DOWN RESULTING
IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW END
WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TOTALS; ONLY RANGING FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.33". WESTERN ASPECTS OF HIGHER TERRAIN COULD
SEE UP TO 0.5" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT, WINDS REMAIN BLUSTERY OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS LIKELY
CONTINUING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 151 PM EST SUNDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO
ROLL THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35MPH;
A FEW 40 MPH GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS. TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN GREENS, BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DOWN FOR THE DAY. HIGHS ARE FAVORED TO
BE SEASONAL WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SINCE THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS LARGELY KEEPING COLD CONDITIONS PINNED
NORTHWARD IN CANADA. THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE NT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TAPERING DOWN EARLY
OVERNIGHT, BUT GRADIENT REMAINS SUPPORTING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 30S FOR MOST SPOTS AND MID/UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 119 PM EST SUNDAY...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AS ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTS WITH SYSTEMS EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS. GIVEN THE FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT, IMPACTS WL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AND FAST
MOVEMENT. TIMING OF SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND HAS RELATIVELY LOW PREDICTABILITY ATTM, BUT IDEA OF
3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS IS HIGHLY
LIKELY. FIRST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDS WITH LOW PRES
PROGGED TO TRACK OVERHEAD ALONG DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
FAST CONFLUENT MID LVL FLOW ALOFT. A MIX OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW IS LIKELY WITH COOLER PROFILES AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS ON BACKSIDE ON WEDS NIGHT. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DOES NOT LINGER LONG WITH FAST PROGRESSION ALOFT, SO UPSLOPE
POTENTIAL WL BE LIMITED. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA ON
THURS INTO FRIDAY WITH CENTER OF 1025MB HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL
PA. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
INTERACTION, TELLS ME PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH MAYBE A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS, BUT NO IMPACTFUL
PRECIP ANTICIPATED. OUR NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND SHARPER THERMAL GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 8 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP. INITIAL SFC LOW PRES
LOOKS TO TRACK TO OUR WEST, SO MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR INITIALLY, WITH BRISK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MODERATELY STRONG WAA. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS CLIMB IN THE 6-8C
RANGE ON SAT BEFORE FROPA, SO HIGHS COULD BE IN THE 50S, BEFORE
TUMBLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. GIVEN WIND FIELDS AND
PROGGED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS, POPS/QPF AND PTYPE WL BE INFLUENCED
BY OUR COMPLEX TERRAIN AS ALWAYS.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS WILL
BE CLOUDS, FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS AND VARYING LEVELS
OF WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE. CLOUDS AT 4000-6000 FEET AGL WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE SOME LIFTING INTO A HIGHER
DECK IS ANTICIPATED. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z AND RESTRENGTHENS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET TOWARD 18Z ON MONDAY. THIS INCREASING WIND FIELD
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE WILL CREATE AREAS OF WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS BETTER MIXING
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY MORNING LOCALIZED GUSTS 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY AT MSS AND SLK. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
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