299
FXUS61 KBTV 022356
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 11. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MORE
FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, AND BREEZES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
* GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. OUTDOOR DECOR MAY BE BLOWN AWAY
IF NOT SECURED AND A FEW WEAKENED TREES/BRANCHES MAY COME
DOWN POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES.
AS OF 151 PM EST SUNDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OUTSIDE
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN; TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LAKE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. MORE IMPACTFUL
WEATHER IS SET TO ARRIVE MONDAY AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRECEDE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 35-55KTS AT THE 850MB
PRESSURE SURFACE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SOME WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE JET STRENGTH WILL BE
STRONGEST BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE REGION. GUSTS 35
TO 45 MPH ARE LOOKING LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 11 CORRIDOR THROUGH NORTHERN
FRANKLIN AND WESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES OF NEW YORK BETWEEN 10AM
AND 5PM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT PRECIPITATION CATCHES UP WITH THE
JET FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LIKELY DAMPENING THE HIGHER END
SPEEDS. STILL, OUTDOOR DECORATIONS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING
BLOWN AWAY IF NOT PROPERLY SECURE, AND A FEW WEAKER TREES MAY
COME DOWN RESULTING IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LOW END WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TOTALS; ONLY
RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.33". WESTERN ASPECTS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE UP TO 0.5" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR
MOST. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS REMAIN BLUSTERY OUT
OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS LIKELY CONTINUING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 151 PM EST SUNDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO
ROLL THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35MPH;
A FEW 40 MPH GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS. TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN GREENS, BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DOWN FOR THE DAY. HIGHS ARE FAVORED TO
BE SEASONAL WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SINCE THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS LARGELY KEEPING COLD CONDITIONS PINNED
NORTHWARD IN CANADA. THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE NT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TAPERING DOWN EARLY
OVERNIGHT, BUT GRADIENT REMAINS SUPPORTING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 30S FOR MOST SPOTS AND MID/UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 119 PM EST SUNDAY...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AS ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTS WITH SYSTEMS EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS. GIVEN THE FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT, IMPACTS WL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AND FAST
MOVEMENT. TIMING OF SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND HAS RELATIVELY LOW PREDICTABILITY ATTM, BUT IDEA OF 3 TO
6 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS IS HIGHLY LIKELY.
FIRST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDS WITH LOW PRES PROGGED
TO TRACK OVERHEAD ALONG DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY IN FAST
CONFLUENT MID LVL FLOW ALOFT. A MIX OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW IS LIKELY WITH COOLER PROFILES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ON
BACKSIDE ON WEDS NIGHT. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT
LINGER LONG WITH FAST PROGRESSION ALOFT, SO UPSLOPE POTENTIAL WL
BE LIMITED. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA ON THURS INTO
FRIDAY WITH CENTER OF 1025MB HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL PA.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
INTERACTION, TELLS ME PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH MAYBE A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS, BUT NO IMPACTFUL
PRECIP ANTICIPATED. OUR NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND SHARPER THERMAL GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 8 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP. INITIAL SFC LOW PRES
LOOKS TO TRACK TO OUR WEST, SO MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR INITIALLY, WITH BRISK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MODERATELY STRONG WAA. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS CLIMB IN THE 6-8C
RANGE ON SAT BEFORE FROPA, SO HIGHS COULD BE IN THE 50S, BEFORE
TUMBLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. GIVEN WIND FIELDS AND
PROGGED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS, POPS/QPF AND PTYPE WL BE INFLUENCED
BY OUR COMPLEX TERRAIN AS ALWAYS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OUR AIR SPACE HAS CLEARED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ONE SMALL AREAS OF CLOUDS AROUND 3700 FT IN
NORTHERN VERMONT CURRENTLY. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z AND RESTRENGTHENS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS AT 2000 FEET TOWARD 18Z ON MONDAY. THIS INCREASING WIND
FIELD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE WILL CREATE AREAS
OF WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS BETTER
MIXING DEVELOPS ON MONDAY MORNING LOCALIZED GUSTS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY AT MSS AND SLK. SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
18Z MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES
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