184
FXUS61 KBTV 030524
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1224 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 11. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MORE
FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, AND BREEZES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
* GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. OUTDOOR DECOR MAY BE BLOWN AWAY
IF NOT SECURED AND A FEW WEAKENED TREES/BRANCHES MAY COME
DOWN POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES.
AS OF 151 PM EST SUNDAY...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AS WE ARE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
COOL TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN; TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LAKE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS SET TO ARRIVE
MONDAY AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PRECEDE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 35-55KTS AT THE 850MB PRESSURE SURFACE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO SOME WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
WHERE JET STRENGTH WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REGION. GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LOOKING LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 11
CORRIDOR THROUGH NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND WESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES
OF NEW YORK BETWEEN 10AM AND 5PM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
PRECIPITATION CATCHES UP WITH THE JET FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
LIKELY DAMPENING THE HIGHER END SPEEDS. STILL, OUTDOOR
DECORATIONS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN AWAY IF NOT
PROPERLY SECURE, AND A FEW WEAKER TREES MAY COME DOWN RESULTING
IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW END
WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TOTALS; ONLY RANGING FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.33". WESTERN ASPECTS OF HIGHER TERRAIN COULD
SEE UP TO 0.5" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT, WINDS REMAIN BLUSTERY OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS LIKELY
CONTINUING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 151 PM EST SUNDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO
ROLL THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35MPH;
A FEW 40 MPH GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS. TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN GREENS, BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DOWN FOR THE DAY. HIGHS ARE FAVORED TO
BE SEASONAL WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SINCE THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS LARGELY KEEPING COLD CONDITIONS PINNED
NORTHWARD IN CANADA. THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE NT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TAPERING DOWN EARLY
OVERNIGHT, BUT GRADIENT REMAINS SUPPORTING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 30S FOR MOST SPOTS AND MID/UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 119 PM EST SUNDAY...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AS ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTS WITH SYSTEMS EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS. GIVEN THE FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT, IMPACTS WL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AND FAST
MOVEMENT. TIMING OF SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND HAS RELATIVELY LOW PREDICTABILITY ATTM, BUT IDEA OF 3 TO
6 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS IS HIGHLY LIKELY.
FIRST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDS WITH LOW PRES PROGGED
TO TRACK OVERHEAD ALONG DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY IN FAST
CONFLUENT MID LVL FLOW ALOFT. A MIX OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW IS LIKELY WITH COOLER PROFILES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ON
BACKSIDE ON WEDS NIGHT. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT
LINGER LONG WITH FAST PROGRESSION ALOFT, SO UPSLOPE POTENTIAL WL
BE LIMITED. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA ON THURS INTO
FRIDAY WITH CENTER OF 1025MB HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL PA.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE
INTERACTION, TELLS ME PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH MAYBE A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS, BUT NO IMPACTFUL
PRECIP ANTICIPATED. OUR NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND SHARPER THERMAL GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 8 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP. INITIAL SFC LOW PRES
LOOKS TO TRACK TO OUR WEST, SO MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR INITIALLY, WITH BRISK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MODERATELY STRONG WAA. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS CLIMB IN THE 6-8C
RANGE ON SAT BEFORE FROPA, SO HIGHS COULD BE IN THE 50S, BEFORE
TUMBLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. GIVEN WIND FIELDS AND
PROGGED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS, POPS/QPF AND PTYPE WL BE INFLUENCED
BY OUR COMPLEX TERRAIN AS ALWAYS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR/LIGHT WINDS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION
AFTER 12Z WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS TREND
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY INTO THE 20-35 KT RANGE TODAY,
HIGHEST AT KMSS. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS TO 40 KT ALSO LIKELY
AT KSLK/KMSS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE GUSTIER FLOW
ARRIVING AT THE SURFACE. RAIN SHOWERS, WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS IN THE 19-02Z TIME FRAME WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH, AFTER WHICH WINDS VEER TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND
ABATE SLIGHTLY WITH CIGS GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARD MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
RA, CHANCE FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG
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