677
FXUS61 KBTV 031847
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO SUMMIT LEVEL, BUT
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO SEVERAL TENTHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 138 PM EST MONDAY...GOES-19 WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE. TEXTURE OF CLOUDS/DEEPER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
LIFT/DYNAMICS AND THIS AREA OF ENHANCEMENT WL MOVE ACRS OUR CWA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SYSTEM IS MOVING FAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO QPF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO SEVERAL TENTHS IN THE
MTNS. ITS A CLASSIC HIGH POP/LOW QPF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH
SOME DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING LIKELY HERE IN THE CPV ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHWEST 925MB TO 850MB FLOW OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS. INITIALLY SNOW
LEVELS ARE NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL 4500 FEET, BUT BTWN 00Z-03Z
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS FALL BTWN -1C AND -2C ACRS THE DACKS AND
NORTHERN GREENS, WHICH SHOULD BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
3500 TO 4000 FEET. UNFORTUNATELY, SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE
AND AS TEMP PROFILES CONT TO COOL AND SNOW LEVELS LOWER TOWARD
12Z, MOISTURE WL BE FADING, SO BASICALLY AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE
3000 FEET IS EXPECTED. DID HOLD 30% TO 50% POPS ACRS THE NEK
THRU MIDDAY TUESDAY.
NEXT CHALLENGE WL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. FIRST GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AT 30 TO 45
MPH THIS EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 35 TO 50
KNOTS AND GOOD MIXING. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING, BUT BEHIND THE PRECIP, EXPECT GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AT 30 TO 45 MPH ON TUES. THESE WL BE HIGHEST ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS AND EAST SIDE OF THE GREENS FROM NEAR
STOWE TO LUDLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER OF 45
TO 50 KNOTS, WHILE BOTTOM VALUES ARE 30 TO 35 KNOTS, SO TAKING THE
AVERAGE SHOULD RESULT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE ON TUES
IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS. A FEW POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE A BIT
TRICKY WITH A MILD EVENING TO START, BUT SHOULD COOL TOWARD 12Z TUES
AS MODEST CAA DEVELOPS. TUESDAY TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING
SUMMITS TO LOWER 50S DEEPER VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 138 PM EST MONDAY...WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS TUES
NIGHT, BEFORE INITIAL WAA MOISTURE ARRIVES BY 12Z WEDS. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN/MTN SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THE WEDS AM COMMUTE, GIVEN
WAA/AVAILABLE 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT ALOFT.
QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT WITH SOME PRECIP HAVING DIFFICULTIES
REACHING THE GROUND ON WEDS AM. AS 998MB LOW PRES TRACKS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON WEDS/WEDS NIGHT, AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP
WL INCREASE. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SOME RAIN/SNOW
LIKELY, WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 1800 FEET OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS AND PARTS OF THE NEK OF VT ON WEDS. SOME
DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HELPS TO LOWER PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS BTWN -1C AND -3C, TO SUPPORT THIS THINKING. A QUICK
COATING TO A SLUSHY INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL SURGE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
SHOW 998MB LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KART TO KSLK TO 1V4,
WHICH COULD KEEP NORTHERN MTNS ON COLD SIDE AND THERMAL PROFILES
JUST COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MTNS ABOVE 2000.
FOR NOW I HAVE 4 TO 6 INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MANSFIELD TO
JAY PEAK AND 1 TO 4 INCHES BTWN 2000 AND 3000 FEET ON WEDS/WEDS
NIGHT. IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL, MAYBE A FEW MTN PASSES
GETTING A LIGHT SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WEDS NIGHT. GIVEN
STRONGER SYSTEM AND BETTER TRACK OF LOW PRES, EXPECT QPF IN THE
0.15 TO 0.50 RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TRRN. TEMPS
WARM MID 30S TO NEAR 50F ON WEDS AND COOL BACK INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 40 BY THURS MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 138 PM EST MONDAY...AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT, OUR AREA REMAINS
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS THE MEAN
CORE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES CONTINUE THEIR SEASONAL
MIGRATION SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. NO LESS
THAN 3 DISCRETE SYSTEMS ARE ON TRACK TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD, THE FIRST COMING WED/WED NIGHT, WITH THE OTHERS SWINGING
THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY NEXT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE GENERAL IDEA IS TO RUN WITH HIGHER, 60-90% PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES WITH EACH SYSTEM, THE DOMINANT P-TYPE FALLING LARGELY
AS RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A MIX OF RAINS/WET SNOWS AT
ELEVATION IS MORE LIKELY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE FEATURES,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BY NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MERIDIONAL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH DIURNAL VARIATION SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY AN ABUNDANCE OF TYPICAL
NOVEMBER CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND
TRENDS GUSTY TODAY WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, GUSTS INTO THE
20-35 KT RANGE EXPECTED, HIGHEST AT KMSS. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY
LLWS TO FROM 35 TO 45 KT LIKELY AT KSLK/KMSS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE GUSTIER FLOW ARRIVING AT THE
SURFACE, AND THEN MORE BROADLY WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY AT SELECTED TERMINALS. RAIN SHOWERS, WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS IN THE 19-02Z TIME FRAME WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH AND CIGS TREND MVFR. AFTERWARD, WINDS VEER TO
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY OVER TIME AS CIGS GENERALLY REMAIN A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
RA, LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS, A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WAVE MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE
PERIOD.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...WFO BTV
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