524
FXUS61 KBTV 050749
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
249 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION WITH MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 248 AM EST WEDNESDAY...* A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH
FROM 4 PM TODAY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING DEVELOPING STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. 500MB SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
SUBTLE RIDGING OVER THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE WITH A SHIELD OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD. WHILE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY, CLOUD COVER AND COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
HEATING POTENTIAL WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A WARM FRONT LEADING
THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY SUNRISE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH A BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FT AGL BEFORE DIURNALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES LIMIT ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER IN THE
DAY. INITIAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH A DRY SURFACE, BEFORE
SATURATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SITUATION WITH THE QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM. A STRONG LLJ IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS ALOFT TO
NEAR 60 MPH, WITH TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO 55 MPH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP AS THE CORE
OF THE LLJ SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. MEAN SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN FACING
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN TICONDEROGA AND
PLATTSBURGH IN NEW YORK, AND BETWEEN LUDLOW AND STRAFFORD IN
VERMONT. PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 40 MPH ON THE HREF ARE 80-100%
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS, SO THIS LEADS TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE REALIZATION OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
MIXING DOWN. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AS A RESULT.
OUTSIDE OF THE WIND THREAT, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
LOWERED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT QPF
AROUND A FEW TENTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS, AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE COLD
FRONT COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO UNDERNEATH THE
LOW, IN THE SOUTHERN CPV. SURFACE INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY THE SYSTEM
VORT MAX, IN ADDITION FROM OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
GREENS, COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME SURFACE CAPE TO A COUPLE
HUNDRED J/KG. NOTABLY, THE BIGGEST CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY IS THAT
THE SYSTEM CENTER LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION, A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL, ALBEIT
CHANCES ARE STILL NON-ZERO. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, THERMAL
PROFILES WILL TANK WITH STRONG CAA IN THE ADKS AND WESTERN GREENS.
SNOW LEVEL SHOULD LOWER 1500FT AGL BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST SHOWS A SLUSHY DUSTING TO A INCH AROUND 1500FT, 1 TO 4
INCHES FROM 2000 TO 3000 FT, AND 4 TO 8 AT SUMMIT LEVEL AT MT.
MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK. IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FAIRLY LOCALIZED TO THE IMMEDIATE HIGH TERRAIN AND
UPPER RIDGES, ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE
FREEZING. THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, PARTICULARLY ESSEX COUNTY IN
VERMONT, WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES EVEN IN THE VALLEYS
POSSIBLE. THOUGH THESE AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RACE OFF TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES AREAWIDE BUT COOLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 30S WITH STRONG CAA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 248 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRY OUT
WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUITE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE THURSDAY SYSTEM WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW 20S AND PERHAPS MID TO UPPER TEENS IN COOL HOLLOWS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIMIT DRASTIC
COOLING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT EVEN LOWS TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE. ONCE AGAIN, CALM WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. A TRANSIENT
LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
CHANCES. DUE TO POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM, WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR MOST AREAS, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE LATENT HEATING AND WAA TAKE HOLD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO NEAR 50 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COUPLE OF MODEL CAMPS SUGGEST THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY IT WILL BE
LARGELY DRY WITH ONLY A LOW (UNDER 40%) CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND OTHER CAMPS SUGGESTING RAIN IS NEARLY
CERTAIN IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LIKELY IN VERMONT (ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN AREAS). AGREEMENT ON RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IS RATHER
HIGH, HENCE HIGH POPS APPROACHING 100% ARE IN THE FORECAST
AREAWIDE WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET TO SUPPORT MORE TERRAIN SHADOWING FOR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO IS POISED TO BE MAINLY RAIN, EVEN AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LIMITED AT BEST UPSLOPE/BACKSIDE
PRECIPITATION AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN SATURDAY MORNING. SO
WHILE 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DWINDLING. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT WOULD
EXPECT EITHER POPS TREND LOWER OR TEMPERATURES HIGHER DURING
THIS PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE MORE
INTERESTING ONE FOR SNOW LOVERS AS A RAIN TO SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH A QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNUSUALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TURNING COLD WITH A DEEP TROUGH
BUILDING ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIMEFRAME THERE CERTAINLY MAY BE SMALL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ALL LREF MODEL CLUSTERS SUPPORT AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, WITH MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION, THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. MEAN 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES OF
ABOUT -8 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES NEAR -4
DEGREES CELSIUS SUGGESTS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH CONDITIONS FOR WET
SNOW DOWN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS, SO THE CURRENT WEATHER TYPE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH MAINLY SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW AT
OUR LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING, AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH WITH GUSTS RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR, AROUND 21Z OR SO AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
MAY BE REDUCED, 3-6SM AT TIMES, AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
OVERHEAD. SOME PERIODS OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT MORE MOUNTAINOUS
TERMINALS LIKE KSLK AND KRUT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. DEFINITE RA, DEFINITE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHSN, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN,
SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, LIKELY
SN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR VTZ005-008>011-017>021.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ034-035.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...SM
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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