747
FXUS61 KBTV 071120
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN
NORTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1155 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS MORNING WILL FEATURE QUIET
WEATHER, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. DO HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MENTIONED DURING THE MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL REACH NORTHERN NEW
YORK BY ABOUT 1 PM, THEN SPREAD ACROSS VERMONT BY 7 PM. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN THE CHANNELED VALLEYS. 850 MB
JET WILL REACH ABOUT 60 KTS, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA, WINDS WILL CALM DOWN A BIT.
EARLY DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO
AROUND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT ON
THE MILDER SIDE TONIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS ONGOING AS WELL AS
CLOUD COVER, GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1155 PM EST THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTER A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER, FAST MOVING WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN AS WELL, AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION DEPENDING
ON HOW EARLY THE PRECIPITATION STARTS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE RAIN OR SNOW MENTIONED, BUT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING, MAY HAVE TO ADD MENTION OF FREEZING
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY NEAR MASSENA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO
NEAR FREEZING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN ON SUNDAY THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE, EVEN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 106 AM EST FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE BEYOND THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER JAMES BAY WILL DIVERGE AND STRETCH ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF A CYCLONIC GYRE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT FAVORS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW TO START NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW SAGS SOUTH FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WITH THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE HOVERING ALONG THE RIVER
ITSELF. TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW SURFACE
COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER INTRUDING WARM AIR ALOFT
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS MASSENA, NEW YORK. AS A RESULT,
THERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM RIDES NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE MORE WARM AIR
IS ABLE TO TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO PREDOMINATELY RAIN.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL IS HOLDING THE FREEZING RAIN OUTSIDE OF
THE REGION, BUT SUBTLE TRACK SHIFTS COULD NUDGE THE COOLER
SURFACE AIR INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. FREEZING RAIN
MAY NEEDED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN FUTURE UPDATES,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE.
COLD AIR SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD ON BRIEFLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GREENS AND EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS, BUT THE
EXPECTATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ALSO REMAINS LOW. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW
AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AND THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
CLOSER, THE MOISTURE CORRIDOR LOOKS TO EASTWARD WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TRANSLATING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED
VALLEYS OF VERMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, STRONG CAA
FROM NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TOWARDS VALLEY FLOORS
SUPPORTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE SYSTEM
EVOLUTION, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AS COMPARED TO THE GEFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, INSTEAD OF DEVELOPING A
DRY SLOT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW, IT IS WORTH
NOTING AS IT KEEPS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL INTO
TUESDAY INSTEAD OF BECOMING MORE SCATTERED. THE BEST SCENARIO IS
THAT MOISTURE PROFILES WEAKEN TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DEVELOP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE LAKE AXIS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH, BUT SUBTLE FLOW WOBBLES
COULD BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SNOW AND RAIN CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIFT BACK TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER SLOPES BY MID WEEK AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LIFT THE 540DM HEIGHT LINE NORTHWARD FOR
DAYTIME RAIN AND MORE ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE WISE, NEXT WEEK APPEARS RELATIVELY
SEASONABLE WITH THE COLDEST DAY BEING TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FILL
IN FROM THE WEST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE UP TO 10
TO 15 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 30 KTS, PARTICULARLY AT
BTV/PBG BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PEAK OF THE WINDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND GENERALLY WEAKEN TO 15
TO 20 KT GUSTS. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL SHIFT
EAST FROM MSS ABOUT 19-21Z, AND INTO VERMONT BY 22-02Z. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH, VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO 3-5SM,
BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED THESE IN PROB30 GROUPS DUE TO TIMING AND
CONFIDENCE DISCREPANCIES IN THE HI RES GUIDANCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TAPER AND LIGHTEN BY 06Z. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TOWARDS MVFR 1500-2500FT AGL AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH, WITH POSSIBLY LOWER CEILINGS 1000-1500 FT AGL AT
SLK/MSS. LLWS WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000FT AGL INCREASE TO 45-50 KTS BY 18Z
AT SLK AND BEYOND 20Z AT ALL OTHER SITES. GUSTY WINDS AND LLWS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: VFR/MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA, LIKELY
SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SHSN, CHANCE SHRA.
VETERANS DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHANNELING EFFECTS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN ENHANCING WIND AND
WAVE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WINDS ON
THE BROAD LAKE WILL PICK UP TODAY AND BE SUSTAINED 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW AS
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
MARINE...NEILES
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