480
FXUS61 KBTV 071847
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING SHOWERY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING LAKE
CHAMPLAIN CONDITIONS FOUND IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION SHORTLY,
CONTINUING TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE, GENERALLY RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH TO ABOUT 0.25 INCHES, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT ON
THE MILDER SIDE TONIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS ONGOING AS WELL AS
CLOUD COVER, GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING; SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONGER AND POSSIBLY SQUALL-LIKE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE FRONT SO THIS POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN
END BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY, IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACHING THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY, WITH SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK, AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH OUT THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION, GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COOL THE SURFACE BEFORE THE
ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL. SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST, WITH SEVERAL
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS POTENTIAL. AS WITH ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY,
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO HOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS MAY OCCUR AND
EXACT TEMPERATURE PROFILES, SO BE SURE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT THIS TIME, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH
OR SO ON SUNDAY, WITH MORE TO COME AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THIS MAY BE SOME OF THE FIRST WINTRY CONDITIONS OF THE
SEASON FOR MANY, BE SURE TO USE CAUTION AS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY
BE HAZARDOUS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE JUST ABOUT
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WHILE ANOTHER TRIES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL BISECT OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY, EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH
AND QUICKLY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES TO FALL SHARPLY
THROUGH THE DAY, THEY'LL BE CHANGING FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST, EVEN REACHING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY MONDAY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TO FOCUS SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CROSS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, KEEPING SHOWERS AROUND.
TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO PERHAPS AROUND 40F IN A
FEW SPOTS, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WINDS
SWITCHING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A LAKE BAND WHICH SHOULD WAVER AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN NY THROUGH
MUCH OF MID WEEK. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES BY, WE'LL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW, WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. HENCE, SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT INTO LATE WEEK. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
CHILLIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST, AND THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND BE
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM 21Z FRI TO 04Z SAT. THESE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY
BE LIGHT, BUT BRIEF HEAVIER ELEMENTS MAY DROP BOTH VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. SHOWERS START TO DISSIPATE AFTER
04Z, THOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO LAST UNTIL NEARLY 12Z SAT.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A NARROW LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING
INTO MAINLY NORTHERN NY AROUND 12Z-14Z ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT
COVERAGE AND TIMING ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT,
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. STILL, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL MAKE FOR WIND SHEAR DURING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS
WELL. WINDS WILL START TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE W/SW AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THEY'LL REMAIN BREEZY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
RA, LIKELY SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SHSN, CHANCE SHRA.
VETERANS DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANNELING EFFECTS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN ENHANCING
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
WINDS ON THE BROAD LAKE WILL PICK UP TODAY AND BE SUSTAINED 25
TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT, BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT DURING THE STRONGEST
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
MARINE...KREMER
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