718
FXUS61 KBTV 151823
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS ON A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AND RAIN. IMPACTS CONTINUE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AS SHARPLY COLDER AND BREEZY WEATHER MOVES IN
TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW WITH UPSLOPE
AREAS SEEING SOME ACCUMULATION AS WELL AS SOME CHILLY WIND
CHILLS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 246 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO
INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD EARLY
THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY.
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE MAINLY TO POTENTIAL FOR ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW
YORK FIRST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
VERMONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE GREENS.
CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC. AREAS LIKE THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THAT ARE SEEING EARLY
MORNING CLEARING COULD HAVE SOME FOG OR FREEZING FOG JUST BEFORE
OR AROUND SUNRISE. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND THE HUDSON BAY IS EXPECTED TO DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, DEVELOPING A
SURFACE LOW THAT DRIVES THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PICK UP TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
DRAWING IN MILDER AIR AND PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER
40S BY THIS AFTERNOON, WARMEST IN CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEYS. THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, HOWEVER, SHOULD STICK
TO A NORTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION, KEEPING THEM FROM REACHING
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 30S ALL DAY. PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE THERE AROUND 4-6 PM TODAY, SPREADING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FREEZING RAIN IS THEN PROBABLE IN THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
GREENS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS WARM AIR OVERRUNS
COLDER AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE IN THESE AREAS. FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UP TO 0.2" WITH SOME 0.3-0.4"
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN COLD POCKETS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
GREENS. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS WE'VE BEEN
FAILING TO COOL OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, AND
WARM AIR WILL BE ABUNDANT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AROUND DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BE MILD AND
ABOVE FREEZING, MEANING AREAS THAT AREN'T COLD ENOUGH AT THE
SURFACE FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL HAVE MOSTLY RAIN AND VERY LITTLE
SNOW.
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY, WE EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA PULLING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING, ALLOWING FOR
RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN ALL LOCATIONS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE MOST SNOW ALONG NORTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS, TOTALING AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE AT SUMMITS. WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
INCREASING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GRADIENTS SUPPORTING
GUSTS TO 20-40 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
GUSTS TOPPING OUT 20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT, THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND TEENS/LOW
20S ELSEWHERE AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW ON MOUNTAIN PASSES. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
WARN OF THE IMPACTS FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1258 AM EST SATURDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW AND GUSTY GRADIENT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CURLS INTO
ATLANTIC CANADA. AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 30S UNDER THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS. SNOW WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY IN NORTHERN VERMONT. A BRIEF TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD LEAD TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AS THE WEEKEND LOW PULLS FURTHER FROM THE AREA. GUSTS IN THE EASTERN
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS NEAR PLATTSBURGH, AND ALONG THE
EASTERN GREENS COULD BE UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE
EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AROUND
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND SUMMIT LEVELS LATE TUESDAY. EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, ISOLATED AREAS OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH UP
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN. CAA SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS SNOW UNDER ANY PASSING SHOWER.
STRONG CAA ALOFT AT 925-850MB PROG TEMPERATURES -4C TO -6C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AND SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 TO
THE UPPER 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 20 TO THE UPPER 20S FOR THE
BEGINNING TO MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL DRAW SOME MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR IN TO THE REGION
AS OUR FLOW PATTERN BECOMES SOUTHERLY FOR THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY
SOME DRYING, THOUGH STILL CLOUDY, CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
INTO THE 40S. CURRENT CONSENSUS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY EVENING DRIVEN BY COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AS AIR ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND WARMER. THE
POSITION OF A TRANSIENT LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR TO WHAT PTYPE IS PRESENT. A NORTHERNLY LOW TRACK
WILL ALLOW OUR SYSTEM TO ALSO TRACK MORE NORTH PLACING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND SUBSEQUENTLY MAINLY RAIN WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN ENSEMBLE TREND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A
WEEK OUT AND HAS SOME TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WE
WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED IN THE COMING DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...WHILE MOST SITES ARE VFR OR NEAR VFR,
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BEYOND 21Z. A DEEPENING LOW IS BEGINNING
TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH A LEADING MID TO UPPER STRATUS DECK TO
ABOUT 10000FT AGL. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT MSS AND SLK BY 21/22Z, AND
BECOMING MORE STEADY BY 00-01Z IN NNY. IN VERMONT, COOLER AIR SHOULD
START PRECIPITATION AT EFK BRIEFLY AS SNOW BEFORE LIKE THE REST OF
VERMONT, PRECIPITATION TURNS TO MORE FZRA. BTV/PBG MAY SEE JUST RA,
WHILE THE REST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE AREA SEE PRECIPITATION START
AS FZRA AT AT TIMES SOME SNOW MIXING IN BRIEFLY AT THE START.
CEILINGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY 01-03Z
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST 1000-1500FT AGL
CEILINGS. LOWER CEILINGS BY 03-5Z TO IFR NEAR 500FT AGL ARE LIKELY
AS THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR BY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES LOOK TO ALSO DROP TO 1-2SM IFR/MVFR WITH THE
BEST IFR PERIOD BETWEEN 02-08Z AS PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST. BY 08-09Z, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE REGION WITH MORE SCATTERED TERRAIN DRIVEN RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS
AS FLOW CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE
TOWARDS 5-6SM AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY 09Z. SNOW WILL FILL
IN TO MSS/SLK/EFK BY 12-14Z. SNOWFALL COULD BRING VSBYS TO 2SM AT
TIMES. AS PRECIPITATION STARTS, A BRIEF LLJ OF 30-40KTS AT 2000FT
AGL WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS AT RUT/SLK AND POTENTIALLY EFK/BTV
BETWEEN 02-08Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 16Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. LIKELY SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT. CHANCE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>021.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
030-031-034.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...STORM
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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