594
FXUS61 KBTV 151942
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
242 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MULTI FACETED WEATHER SYSTEM IS BEARING DOWN ON THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO OUR
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MIXED
PRECIPITATION, CHANGING TO RAIN EVENTUALLY, THEN SNOW AS COLD
AIR MOVES IN AND SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOWER
30S TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT. PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE EVEN REACHED THE 40S. A
DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW YORK AND
EASTERN ONTARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA, WE WILL
HAVE A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY DUE TO THE HISTORY OF THESE STORMS. FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND AREAS
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE GREENS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
WARM AIR OVERRUNS COLDER AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE IN THESE
AREAS. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UP TO 0.2" IN
COLD POCKETS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AROUND DAWN
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE FREEZING, MEANING AREAS THAT AREN'T COLD ENOUGH AT THE
SURFACE FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL HAVE MOSTLY RAIN AND VERY LITTLE
SNOW. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE PULLING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN ALL
LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH GRADIENTS
SUPPORTING GUSTS TO 20-40 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND GUSTS TOPPING OUT 20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. WITH LOWS
FORECAST IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT, THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND TEENS/LOW 20S ELSEWHERE AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW ON MOUNTAIN
PASSES. AS THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THREAT COMES TO AN END, WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER NEW WINTER HEADLINE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
TOTALS BY MONDAY MORNING ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES WILL BE 8 TO
12 INCHES WITH UP TO 18 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHER
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL ONLY HAVE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AND AREAS OUTSIDE THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM EST SATURDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW AND GUSTY GRADIENT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CURLS INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO 4
INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE 30S UNDER THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS. SNOW WILL LIKELY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. AREAS ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE NORTHERN GREENS COULD
ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY IN NORTHERN VERMONT. A BRIEF
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD LEAD TO SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AS THE WEEKEND LOW PULLS FURTHER FROM THE
AREA. GUSTS IN THE EASTERN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
NEAR PLATTSBURGH, AND ALONG THE EASTERN GREENS COULD BE UP TO 20
TO 25 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AROUND LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND SUMMIT
LEVELS LATE TUESDAY. EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME,
ISOLATED AREAS OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH UP TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN. CAA SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS SNOW UNDER ANY PASSING SHOWER. STRONG
CAA ALOFT AT 925-850MB PROG TEMPERATURES -4C TO -6C WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AND SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 TO
THE UPPER 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 20 TO THE UPPER 20S FOR
THE BEGINNING TO MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MID- ATLANTIC WILL DRAW SOME MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR IN TO THE
REGION AS OUR FLOW PATTERN BECOMES SOUTHERLY FOR THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME DRYING, THOUGH STILL CLOUDY, CONDITIONS. OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 40S. CURRENT CONSENSUS SHOWS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING DRIVEN BY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AS AIR
ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND WARMER. THE POSITION OF A TRANSIENT
LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR TO
WHAT PTYPE IS PRESENT. A NORTHERNLY LOW TRACK WILL ALLOW OUR
SYSTEM TO ALSO TRACK MORE NORTH PLACING US IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND SUBSEQUENTLY MAINLY RAIN WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
ENSEMBLE TREND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A
WEEK OUT AND HAS SOME TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILE UNCERTAINTY,
BUT WE WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED IN THE COMING DAY.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...WHILE MOST SITES ARE VFR OR NEAR VFR,
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BEYOND 21Z. A DEEPENING LOW IS
BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH A LEADING MID TO UPPER
STRATUS DECK TO ABOUT 10000FT AGL. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
A WINTRY MIX WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT MSS
AND SLK BY 21/22Z, AND BECOMING MORE STEADY BY 00-01Z IN NNY. IN
VERMONT, COOLER AIR SHOULD START PRECIPITATION AT EFK BRIEFLY
AS SNOW BEFORE LIKE THE REST OF VERMONT, PRECIPITATION TURNS TO
MORE FZRA. BTV/PBG MAY SEE JUST RA, WHILE THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS IN THE AREA SEE PRECIPITATION START AS FZRA AT AT
TIMES SOME SNOW MIXING IN BRIEFLY AT THE START.
CEILINGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY
01-03Z WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST 1000-1500FT
AGL CEILINGS. LOWER CEILINGS BY 03-5Z TO IFR NEAR 500FT AGL ARE
LIKELY AS THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR BY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES LOOK TO ALSO DROP TO 1-2SM IFR/MVFR WITH THE BEST
IFR PERIOD BETWEEN 02-08Z AS PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST. BY 08-09Z, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE REGION WITH MORE SCATTERED TERRAIN DRIVEN RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS FLOW CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARDS 5-6SM AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY 09Z.
SNOW WILL FILL IN TO MSS/SLK/EFK BY 12-14Z. SNOWFALL COULD BRING
VSBYS TO 2SM AT TIMES. AS PRECIPITATION STARTS, A BRIEF LLJ OF
30-40KTS AT 2000FT AGL WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS AT RUT/SLK AND
POTENTIALLY EFK/BTV BETWEEN 02-08Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS AT ALL TERMINALS BY 16Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. LIKELY SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT. CHANCE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>021.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
030-031-034.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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