784
FXUS61 KBTV 161340
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
840 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN OR SNOW
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHWESTERN SLOPES WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 10 TO
18 FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 835 AM EST SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AS PERSISTENT AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW HAS SET UP OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THIS AREA SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT, THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE BELOW:
* A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING UP TO
10-18 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE NORTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-6 INCHES EXPECTED AND LOCALIZED 7-9 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
IMPACTS:
* ROADS, AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WILL LIKELY
BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS, MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES,
PARTICULARLY IN WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS.
* STRONG WINDS OF 30-40 MPH COMBINED WITH THE WEIGHT OF SNOW ON
TREE LIMBS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND COULD CAUSE SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WE HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING
IN EFFECT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE MOST PARTS OF NEW YORK AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE BECOME TOO MILD TO SUPPORT ANY
APPRECIABLE FREEZING RAIN, THERE ARE STILL COLD POCKETS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE GREENS THIS MORNING THAT COULD SEE MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS THE MILDER AIR OVERRUNS COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE
SURFACE, BUT THE WINDOW FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS CLOSING SWIFTLY
AND ANYTHING THAT OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A GLAZE.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL BE PULLING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN ALL LOCATIONS BY THE
END OF THE AFTERNOON. ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AND TRAVEL WILL
BECOME DIFFICULT IN THE ADIRONDACKS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND
IN THE GREENS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING TODAY WITH GRADIENTS
SUPPORTING GUSTS TO 20-40 MPH, PEAKING ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTRA
STRESS ON ANY SNOW-LADEN TREE BRANCHES.
WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT, THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND TEENS/LOW 20S ELSEWHERE AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW
ON MOUNTAIN PASSES. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. SNOW RATIOS
MAKE FORECASTING SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY TRICKY, AS MODEL BLENDS
ARE PRODUCING RELATIVELY HIGH RATIOS FOR THE SCENARIO, BUT
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION. AT THE MOMENT, THINKING RATIOS START THE EVENT TODAY
IN THE 3 TO 11 TO 1 RANGE, ENDING MONDAY AROUND 13 TO 15 TO 1.
BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL HAVE REACHED AS HIGH AS 10 TO 18 INCHES ON NORTHWESTERLY
SLOPES, THOUGH WIDER VALLEYS WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON THESE HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH PERHAPS A HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 137 AM EST SUNDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW AND GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE CURLS INTO ATLANTIC CANADA, THOUGH MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD
WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DECREASING. AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO
3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE (HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN GREENS)
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO
AND LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 137 AM EST SUNDAY...START OF THIS PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)
STILL UNDER NW CYCLONIC INFLUENCE FROM DEPARTING CANADIAN
MARITIMES LOW WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT CONTINUED SEASONABLY
COLD...AKA 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
LOWS DUE TO CLOUDS.
THEREAFTER, FOUR CORNERS SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD CENTRAL CONUS BY
FRIDAY WITH OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE REFLECTION MOVES ACROSS OH
RVR VLY AND GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL SEE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. INITIALLY, THERE IS ENOUGH MARGINALLY
COLD AIR FOR SOME MIXED SNOW AND RAIN, PERHAPS SOME ICY MIX BUT
HAVE TIME TO REFINE THAT PART OF THE FORECAST FOR EARLY FRIDAY
BUT STORM TRACK AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS LIQUID FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKEND TO
REINTRODUCE RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT- SATURDAY.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CHANGING CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH MAYBE SOME
RESIDUAL AT KEFK THROUGH 12Z. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY CIGS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE IN THE WIDER VALLEYS LIKE KMSS,KPBG AND
KBTV. UPSLOPE -SHSN WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN NY 12-16Z AND THEN
OVERSPREAD INTO VT 16-20Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR-MVFR FOR
WIDER VALLEYS BUT LIKELY IFR-MVFR FOR TAF SITES NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DUE TO VSBY AND CIGS.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE WNW AT 15-25+KTS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET THIS
MORNING, BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15-30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR VTZ002-004-018-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR VTZ003-006-008-016-017.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ027-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ029>031.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...NEILES/STORM
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...HASTINGS/SLW
MARINE...STORM
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page