905
FXUS61 KBTV 161831
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWESTERN SLOPES
WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 18 FORECAST THROUGH
TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
TO THE EAST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION
UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS OF NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. CURRENTLY HAVE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW, BUT WITH LOSS OF ANY DAYTIME HEATING PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO
REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL LEAD TO COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH REMAIN
POSSIBLE AND WILL BE PEAKING MONDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED IN AREAS WITH FRESH SNOWPACK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S, CLOSER TO 30 NEAR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
UPDATED SNOW TOTAL SNOW FORECAST IS FOR UP TO 2 FEET IN THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS, WITH AROUND 12 TO 18
INCHES IN THE REST OF THE WARNING AREA. AREAS BELOW 1000 FEET
WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM EST SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT
ACCUMULATING AS MUCH. OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY AND
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
TO AROUND 40 IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN GREEN PEAKS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MID TO LATE WEEK DRAWING SOME
MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR IN TO THE REGION. OUR FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY SOME DRYING,
THOUGH STILL CLOUDY, CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S BY LATE WEEK. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY WITH CURRENT CONSENSUS SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY
EVENING DRIVEN BY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AS AIR ALOFT WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AND WARMER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WARMER
TRACK SOLUTION FROM PRIOR RUNS WHICH WILL PLACE MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SUBSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION MAINLY
AS RAIN. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. A GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARDS WARMER AIR AND MORE RAIN DRIVEN SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY
HEADING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...TERMINAL CONDITIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS, MAINLY CONFINED TO SLK/EFK/MPV AND AT TIMES MSS ARE
LEADING TO VSBY CIG CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD HOVER
AROUND 1000- 2000FT AGL AT MPV/SLK/EFK/MSS WITH CEILINGS
3000-5000FT AGL AT BTV/PBG/RUT IN THE VALLEY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL STAY AT
THESE LEVEL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TO
700FT UNDER ANY MORE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. CEILINGS
AT SLK COULD LOWER TO PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AS FURTHER
COOLING AND LOWERING CLOUD DECKS TAKE PLACE. CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT AT MSS AS THE TERMINAL WILL SIT
ON THE EDGE OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW CORRIDOR. VSBYS WILL ALSO RANGE
FROM 1-5SM WITH THE BEST IFR VSBYS UNDER MORE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS AT SLK/EFK/MPV. USED TEMPO GROUPS TO EXPRESS THE
VARIABILITY IN SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS 15-25KTS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
BLSN AT SLK. NORTHWEST WINDS, AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET, BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-30 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ002-004-
018-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ003-006-008-
016-017.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ027-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ029>031.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
MARINE...STORM
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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