147
FXUS61 KBTV 172328
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER
OFF ON TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 617 PM EST MONDAY...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING,
MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. RADAR SHOWS SOME INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS, AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS/WEB CAMS SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IN
THESE AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
50-75% IN THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL
MAINLY BE AN INCH OR LESS, THOUGH THE SPINE OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS, HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, AND THE HIGH
PEAKS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES. VALLEYS WILL SEE
FLURRIES AT MOST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
FURTHER EAST OF OUR REGION, SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO
WIND DOWN. STILL THINK THAT SOME SORT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, BUT
HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS ENDED. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE LIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WELL WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENING AS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. UNTIL THE
WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER, BLOWING SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 15 TO 25
MPH OVERNIGHT, AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT, THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY
COME TO AN END. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED
BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOWS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 PM EST MONDAY...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
QUIETER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE SOME
WELCOME SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD
BY MID TO LATE WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE FOR
FALL STANDARDS. HIGHS TUESDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30. OUR FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL AND SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRYING, THOUGH STILL CLOUDY, CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
FRIDAY, WITH NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A DRIER SYSTEM WITH A
BREAK IN THE JET STREAM. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SINGLE JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE ECMWF
DEPICTS TWO WEAKER STREAKS, ONE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY, AND
ANOTHER TO OUR SOUTH MORE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS BREAK IS
LOOKING MORE LIKLEY IN A RUN TO RUN ANALYSIS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
A WEAKER MORE SCATTERY SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE VARIES FROM A FEW TENTHS TO A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH BETWEEN THE EPS AND GEFS. PRECIPITATION TYPE VARIABILITY
ALSO REMAINS, THOUGH LESS SO IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. SOME SHALLOW
RESIDUAL COLD AIR NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM, AND NEAR SUMMITS SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS FRIDAY BEFORE A SWITCH TO ALL RAIN OCCURS BY THE
AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE COLD HOLLOWS
OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS WELL. FURTHERMORE,
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO SOME MIXED DOWN BREEZY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN SHOWERS. GUSTS
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS, AND LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LIGHT LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHERN GREENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH KEFK/KSLK TO SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACTS.
VISIBILITY 2-4SM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW AT THESE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, ONLY FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED, AND THEN IT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH KPBG AND
KRUT THE ONLY SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CLOUDS WILL START TO
DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WELL, GENERALLY 6-12 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MVFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS, BECOMING
WESTERLY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WAVES
WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 5 FEET, SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO 1 TO 4 FEET.
STRONG WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...HASTINGS
MARINE...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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