086
FXUS61 KBTV 180702
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
202 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER
OFF ON TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS RETURNING FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EST TUESDAY...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT BECOMING MORE LOCALIZED DIRECTLY ON
SLOPES AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
GREENS. DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WIN OUT DECREASING SHOWERS FURTHER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME FLURRIES LINGERING OVER MOUNTAIN TOPS AND
POSSIBLY ADJACENT TO EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES; HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE 30S WARMING TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR
BROADER VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. LOWS ARE LIKELY
TO BE MARGINALLY COOLER AS SKIES CLEAR. COLDEST HOLLOWS COULD
DIP INTO THE LOW TEENS (AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
SHOULD CONDITIONS ALIGN IDEALLY - WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER) WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY BUT REMAINING LIGHT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S, COMPARATIVELY MILD GIVEN
RECENT CONDITIONS, AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EST TUESDAY...OUR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION STILL IS ON
TRACK TO END ON FRIDAY AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCUR AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. WHILE SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN, CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AT
THE ONSET, THE STRONG CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS LIKE A PLAIN
RAIN SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY DEEP AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
WARMING. CONSENSUS OF A LOW TRACK FAR TO OUR NORTH/WEST, AND NO
PHASING TO SUPPORT SECONDARY LOW FORMATION TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT, SEEMS TO LIMIT HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS SUB-FREEZING AIR
ALOFT RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY.
THAT BEING SAID, SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY RETURN (925
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 30TH PERCENTILE), WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. WITH A DEEPENING LOW SCENARIO AND GREATER COLD AIR
ADVECTION, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWER PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT SYSTEM, PREDICTABILITY OF ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS FAIRLY LOW.
GENERALLY NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT
LARGELY UNREMARKABLE WITH NO ANOMALIES NOTED AT THIS TIME WITH
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, OR WIND IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
DATA. AS SUCH, EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW/RAIN DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK, A LOT OF CLOUDINESS, AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TRICKY CEILINGS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS AS SHALLOW, LOW CLOUDS LINGER WITH MIX OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. ASIDE FROM PBG WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT, CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. BTV AND RUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE
INTERVALS OF MVFR THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE WESTERLY FLOW HELPS
SCATTER OUT LOW CEILINGS WHILE MVFR REMAINS AT MSS. MEANWHILE HIGHER
ELEVATION, MAINLY VERY LIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH
THE LOW CEILINGS, AFFECTING SLK, MPV, AND EFK WITH VISIBILITIES
MAINLY 3 TO 6SM. CESSATION OF THESE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR
BEFORE THE CEILINGS IMPROVE, TIED TO LOSS OF CLOUD ICE AS CLOUDS
BECOME MORE SHALLOW: ROUGHLY 12Z AT MPV, 16Z AT SLK, AND NOT UNTIL
21Z AT EFK.
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CEILINGS AT SLK WILL CONTINUE AS CLOUD BASES
TEND TO STAY NEAR 1000 FEET. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM PREVAILING IFR AS
RECENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS HIGHER CEILINGS, TIED TO
SOME DRYING, GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE NOTED PROBABILITIES OF IFR
FOR ANY GIVEN HOUR ARE ONLY AS HIGH AS 50% AND LOWERING AFTER 12Z,
WHILE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE APPROACH
FOR A LONGER DURATION (CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET AS LATE AS 18Z).
AS FOR WINDS, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD; MAINLY SUSTAINED 7 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO
25 KNOTS. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST, SUCH
THAT MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL TEND TO BE UNDER 20 KNOTS BY 18Z AND
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET
BY THE AFTERNOON.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
MARINE...BOYD
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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