351
FXUS61 KBTV 181720
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1220 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
RETURNING FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1213 PM EST TUESDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO
AN END, AND WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH SOME
WELCOME SUNSHINE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS;
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE 30S WARMING TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR BROADER VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1213 PM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY
BUT REMAINING LIGHT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW/MID 40S, COMPARATIVELY MILD GIVEN RECENT CONDITIONS, AND
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO NOT BE AS
COOL WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AND AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY
FLOW, LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EST TUESDAY...OUR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION STILL IS
ON TRACK TO END ON FRIDAY AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCUR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION,
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOCALIZED AREAS
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AT THE ONSET, THE STRONG CONSENSUS FOR THIS
EVENT LOOKS LIKE A PLAIN RAIN SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY
DEEP AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. CONSENSUS OF A LOW TRACK
FAR TO OUR NORTH/WEST, AND NO PHASING TO SUPPORT SECONDARY LOW
FORMATION TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT, SEEMS TO LIMIT HOPE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS SUB-FREEZING AIR ALOFT RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY.
THAT BEING SAID, SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY RETURN (925
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 30TH PERCENTILE), WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. WITH A DEEPENING LOW SCENARIO AND GREATER COLD AIR
ADVECTION, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWER PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT SYSTEM, PREDICTABILITY OF
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS FAIRLY LOW.
GENERALLY NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT
LARGELY UNREMARKABLE WITH NO ANOMALIES NOTED AT THIS TIME WITH
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, OR WIND IN GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE DATA. AS SUCH, EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT ELEVATION
DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK, A LOT OF
CLOUDINESS, AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIVEN BY CEILINGS, WHICH ASIDE FOR PBG, ARE IN THE 700 TO 3100
FEET RANGE. IFR ONLY EXPECTED AT SLK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES GREATLY DECREASE BY
18Z (TO NEAR 10%), SUGGESTING SOMETIME IN THE 16-18Z PERIOD
WE'LL SEE THE END OF IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, MORE THAN OTHER
SITES, EFK WILL BE AFFECTED TODAY BY MORE IMPULSES OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THESE CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY MSS, SLK, AND EFK. BLOCKED FLOW WILL KEEP INTERVALS
OF BKN CIGS GOING AT RUT AND BTV, ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE 3000 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE AFTER 00Z WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE SUPPORTING MORE MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 11 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, AND THESE
WINDS SHOULD PEAK THROUGH 16Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: MVFR. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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