979
FXUS61 KBTV 182329
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER, SOME QUIET WEATHER WITH
INTERVALS OF CLEARER SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN. SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST MOVING
FRONT. AGREEABLE LATE NOVEMBER CONDITIONS WILL RESUME FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON
MONDAY THAT WILL BE THE START A NEW WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1213 PM EST TUESDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO
AN END, AND WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH SOME
WELCOME SUNSHINE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS;
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE 30S WARMING TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR BROADER VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1213 PM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY
BUT REMAINING LIGHT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW/MID 40S, COMPARATIVELY MILD GIVEN RECENT CONDITIONS, AND
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO NOT BE AS
COOL WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AND AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY
FLOW, LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1246 PM EST TUESDAY...AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEEK,
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS PLAIN RAIN, ALTHOUGH A
FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, UNSETTLED YET SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS LOOK TO AVAIL, WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
CLEARING OUT, THOUGH KEFK HAS CEILINGS AROUND 1500-2500 FT AGL.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL, CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY TO RESURGE AS
CONDITIONS BECOME SATURATED AGAIN. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AT
KSLK, WHERE CEILINGS COULD REACH ABOUT 500-700 FT AGL.
CONFIDENCE ON IFR AT KSLK IS MODERATE. MODELS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE ADIRONDACKS. ALTHOUGH SOILS ARE STILL
VERY WARM COMPARED TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT,
NEARBY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SNOW DEPTHS OF 3-6. SO THIS WOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION AGAINST THE WARM GROUND (NYS MESONET 5CM
SOIL TEMPERATURES READ 35-40 F) GIVEN THE SNOW. STILL, NOTED
4SM AT KSLK IN A TEMPO FROM 04Z TO 08Z, AND WE'LL MONITOR HOW IT
EVOLVES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND AFTER
14Z, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CLEARING SKIES. ALL TERMINALS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...HAYNES
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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