334
FXUS61 KBTV 191813
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING
FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST MOVING FRONT. SEASONABLE LATE
NOVEMBER CONDITIONS WILL RESUME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON MONDAY THAT WILL BE
THE START OF SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDING
INTO THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, OTHERWISE
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AFTER A DAY OF WELCOMED
SUNSHINE. CLOUD COVER HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S UNDER
THE THICK CLOUDS WITH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN SUNSHINE.
THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER TRICKY OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. DID GO BELOW MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, HAVE LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND TEENS TO AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO ANY
CLEARING AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING CLOUDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SHARPLY. THURSDAY WILL BE MORE CLOUDY THAN
TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS TONIGHT OR LAST NIGHT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUR
NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL LATER MORNING OR EVEN AFTERNOON AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS FRONT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SOME AREAS WILL MANAGE
TO REMAIN DRY THIS TIME AROUND. DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS, WE COULD SEE A QUICK PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET. AFTER ABOUT 10 AM, THIS CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF AS WARM AIR PUSHES NORTHWARD.
FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST FOR PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION, UP TO HALF AN INCH.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE CONFINED
TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY LATE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1232 PM EST WEDNESDAY...A STRETCH OF SEASONABLE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY WANE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SKIRTING
ALONG THE REGION MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ON MONDAY, PARTICULARLY TO MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS, BUT ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN GIVEN THERMAL
PROFILES, BUT DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS
TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMSS
WHERE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BRING IFR
CONDITIONS. THE IFR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KMSS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FOG AND POTENTIAL IFR IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
THE BEST TERMINALS FOR ANY FOG WILL LIKELY BE KSLK AND KMPV,
WITH SOME BR MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND/OR CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WHETHER MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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