370
FXUS61 KBTV 211811
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR TOMORROW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, BRINGING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY RAIN ON TUESDAY, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 111 PM EST FRIDAY...SOME SCATTERED, LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. WHILE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WAS
MORE WINTRY, WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP MOST REMAINING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL WHICH WILL TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH LIMITED
MOISTURE IT BE MORE OF A DRIZZLE THAN ACTUAL SHOWERS. ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN 30S TO LOW
40S, A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 111 PM EST FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND AS A QUICK-HITTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL BE MARGINAL WITHIN THE BROADER VALLEYS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GENERALLY
IN THE 30S. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEYS AND A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER SUMMITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO
THE 20S, ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO FALL AS SNOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 111 PM EST FRIDAY...UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE WORK WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARE LIMITED THOUGH, SO ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINOR. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ARRIVE LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AT THE ONSET TUESDAY
NIGHT, SO THERE COULD BE A BIT OF WINTRY MIX WHEN PRECIPITATION
STARTS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VT WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE TOUGHER TO
SCOUR OUT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GREENS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL RAIN, THOUGH IT'LL TURN MORE SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AS SOUTH WINDS BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S. FOR THANKSGIVING...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE HOLIDAY, ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH HAD A SOMEWHAT EXTREME
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE PARENT LOW OF WEDNESDAY'S WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD HUDSON BAY,
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THOUGH TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN (SOME 12-24
HOURS DIFFERENT BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS), IT DOES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICKLY WITH NO REAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT.
THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS
WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST, AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SNOW SHOWERS TO
BECOME FOCUSED DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO, STREAMING INTO NORTHERN NY
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL GREENS. HOWEVER, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM IS AND
HOW QUICKLY THE LOW AND ITS FRONTS PUSH EASTWARD. SO WHILE THE START
OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED,
THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, INCLUDING
PRECIPITATION TYPE, AMOUNT, AND WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR. WE CONTINUE TO ASK THAT YOU PLEASE FOLLOW THE LATEST
FORECASTS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY TRAVEL PLANS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE IN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NY HAVE
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR AT KMSS AND KSLK RESPECTIVELY. AS
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE
OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONLY, MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS.
BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THROUGH 22Z, WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. GENERALLY MVFR/VFR THEREAFTER
WITH CEILINGS AOA 2500-3500 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD THEREAFTER. S/SW WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
TO 20 KT AT KBTV AND KMSS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, TURNING WINDS TO THE W/NW AROUND
5 KT AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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