386
FXUS61 KBTV 230551
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1251 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN, WILL RESUME LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD, A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COLDER
CONDITIONS FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 612 PM EST SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE WANED AFTER
SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL IMPACT TONIGHT'S
TEMPERATURES, AS CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVERHEAD EVEN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE. UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT'S IN PLACE, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS VIRGA AT THE ONSET. ONCE IT DOES REACH
THE GROUND, EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT
SNOW, THOUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
COULD MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE LOW
MOVES TO OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, TRANSITIONING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS TURN
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THESE WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT, THEN SLOWLY START TO WANE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, MAINLY 2
INCHES OR LESS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT.
THE SUMMITS COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1244 PM EST SATURDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN SIDES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS, BUT EXPECT THESE WILL WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
RAPIDLY DECREASES. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WIDER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, PEAKING IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM,
THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST SATURDAY...DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST, RIDING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD BUT CLOUDY AND MURKY
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AND SOUTHERLY GUSTS 10-15
KNOTS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY DUE TO A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIP
SHOULD BE LARGELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST
PEAKS DUE TO THE MILD CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
MAY PICK UP A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS
SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND SUBJECT TO MELT HEADING INTO AN EVEN
MILDER MIDWEEK.
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MILD, CLOUDY, AND
DREARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO FALL BELOW THE 30S ON TUESDAY NIGHT
UNDER CONTINUED THICK CLOUD COVER, REBOUNDING QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. IF WE REACH 50F AT THE
BURLINGTON AIRPORT ON WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BE THE FIRST 50 DEGREE
DAY SINCE NOVEMBER 8TH. THANKS TO CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH MINIMAL SNOW POSSIBLE, EVEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO EVENTUALLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT LOWS
STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON THANKSGIVING MORNING IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S, LEADING TO SNOW LEVELS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS EVEN INTO THE WIDER
VALLEYS AS A COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON THANKSGIVING, LIKELY LEADING TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND POTENTIALLY
BEYOND WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALL THIS SAID, WE'RE FORECASTING A SEASONABLE THANKSGIVING WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS TERRAIN. PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON YOUR LOCATION
AND ELEVATION. THOSE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHERN GREENS AS WELL AS THOSE LOCATED ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY HAVE A 40-70% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, WHILE THE
WIDER VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAVE A 10- 40% CHANCE.
COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE GREEN MTNS, AS TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
CONCERNS AREN'T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, BUT TIMING UNCERTAINTY
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS)
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE
CONTINUE TO ASK THAT YOU PLEASE FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY TRAVEL PLANS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AND LIGHT WIND
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PERIODS OF 3-5SM BR CONTINUING AT SLK
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SLK/MSS BY 15-17Z,
AND ACROSS THE VERMONT TAF SITES AFTER 17-18Z. ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY A COATING TO 1" EXPECTED, BUT VSBY MAY OCCASIONALLY
DROP TO 1-2SM RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT A MIX OR TRANSITION TO RAIN AT KMSS THIS AFTN WITH SOME
WARMER AIR REACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WINDS OVERALL GENERALLY LIGHT, MAINLY S TO SW AT 5-9KT
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT NWLY AFTER SUNSET WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH 3-5SM
-SHSN POSSIBLE AT KEFK/KMPV AND KSLK.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
RA, CHANCE SN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...BANACOS
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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