210
FXUS61 KBTV 231826
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THEN, TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME TERRAIN-DRIVEN IN NORTHWESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING MORE SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT RAIN LATE TUESDAY AND PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, WHEN LAKE-EFFECT SNOW AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM EST SUNDAY...THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT, PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITIES ON ROADWAYS AND AT AIRPORTS.
ANYONE TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAYS SHOULD USE CAUTION IF THEY'RE
HEADING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MILDER
AIR SHOULD FLOW INTO THE WIDER VALLEYS, MIXING SOME RAIN IN WITH THE
SNOW FOR A PERIOD. TONIGHT, THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE, BRINGING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, ANY AREAS THAT STARTED SEEING
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR SUMMITS DUE TO FAST FLOW AND HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS (13-15 TO 1). HOWEVER, WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SLOPES COULD
ALSO RECEIVE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WHERE SNOW GROWTH ZONES
SATURATE AND TEMPERATURES COOL.
SOME SNOW MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO END
PRECIPITATION BY THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE IN THE
LOW, WIDE VALLEYS TO 3-5 INCHES ON SUMMITS. MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD
USE CAUTION, ESPECIALLY IF DRIVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS, BUT IN
GENERAL, IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL. OVERALL, TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY QUIET WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AND GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CALM
AND QUIET AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AS
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM EST SUNDAY...TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THICK CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW IN DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH, BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, SOME POCKETS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS COULD HOLD ONTO
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MOST
LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY
EVENING, SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WHEN THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING WITH
IT A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL MILDER AIR.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 30S,
ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, EXCEPT FOR THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD POCKETS. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
TO BE RAIN WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.05-0.15" ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALIZED GLAZE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EST SUNDAY...STRONG CONSENSUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER BY
MID TO LATE WEEK EXISTS AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD
JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A COLD FRONT WITH GOOD
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALIGNED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 250MB JET
STREAK LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND POTENTIALLY SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN
DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE BULK OF THE BOUNDARIES
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH A CHANCE TO
PUSH 50 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN AND ADIRONDACK SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. NEGATIVE TILTING OF THE UPPER LOW BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.5" WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT.
THANKSGIVING MORNING WILL SEE BRIEF DRYING OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN THE MORNING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE ALONG THE QUEBEC EASTERN ONTARIO
BORDER. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE WINDS UP TO 15-25 MPH
WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH DURING THE DAY ON
THANKSGIVING. ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF ONTARIO
WILL SET UP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN ESSEX AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NEW YORK ON
THANKSGIVING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
UNDER THE BAND. ACROSS VERMONT, SOME FLURRIES AND MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS ON THANKSGIVING, BUT WE
CONTINUE TO ASK THAT YOU PLEASE FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESUME
FRIDAY MORNING AS A FINAL SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES
EASTWARD. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT SOME FLURRIES IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO SHIFT THE
LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF ONTARIO TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING
TO CHILLY NORTHWEST AIR. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN END TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST NORTH OF RUT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AT RUT. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW AT
BTV. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANCE AT ANY FLASH FREEZE. PASSING SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN SEEN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1-2SM WITH AS LOW AS 1/2SM
AT TIMES AT SLK/BTV/MSS. BLOCKED FLOW AGAINST THE GREENS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT BTV AS FROUDE NUMBERS ARE 0.2.
BOTH VSBY AND CIG FORECASTS ARE CHALLENGING WITH THE BLOCKED FLOW
AND UNCERTAINTY UNDER ANY PASSING SHOWERS. VSBYS BETWEEN 1/2SM TO
3SM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN GENERAL. CIGS
ARE ALSO VERY CHANGEABLE AND CHALLENGING. CEILINGS HAVE BEGUN TO
LOWER WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW PERSISTING IFR CIGS TO 500-
1000FT AGL WITH THE ONSET OF MORE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. MODELS AT SLK/BTV/MSS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD STAY DOWN ONCE THEY FALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND DO NOT LOOK TO IMPROVE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AT THE EARLIEST. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE TERRAIN,
PARTICULARLY SLK, OVERNIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FOR
MOST TERMINALS, BUT WITH LOWER CEILINGS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT ONLY 4-9KTS FROM THE SOUTH AT BTV/PBG, AND GENERALLY SHIFTING
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MSS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH NORTHEAST DRAINAGE
FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, CHANCE
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...STORM
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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