370
FXUS61 KBTV 241827
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE REGION SITS BETWEEN OUR
DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING SYSTEM IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN LATE TUESDAY
AND EVEN MILDER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG
WITH LOCALIZED LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WITH LIGHTER WINDS WINDS BECOMING FOR
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 124 PM EST MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY OUR
DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK, PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DOWNSLOPING AND SOME
MOUNTAIN WAVE BREAKS IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE LEADING TO A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, BUT BY AND LARGE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH TONIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY EARLY MORNING AS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MILD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTING TO OUR SOUTH. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL RIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TOWARDS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MAY BRIEFLY PASS THROUGH THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT HOW MUCH
ACTUALLY REACHES THE SURFACE WILL DEPEND ON HOW DRY THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY GETS TONIGHT, THUS THERE'S A CHANCE IT MAY JUST
FALL AS VIRGA. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP
UP SURFACE WINDS WITH A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. CHANNELED FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LASTING WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER, SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY, VT MAY BE NEAR FREEZING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TEMPERATURES, AND IF
TEMPERATURES OVER EXCEED THE FORECAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LOWER
VALUES MAY BE HARDER TO ACHIEVE WITH LIMITED TIME TO COOL. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCRETION. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AND END AS RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE 5000FT AGL WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAIN
EVEN AT THE SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE RECEPTIBLE NATURE OF THE GROUND TO WATER GIVEN RECENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 124 PM EST MONDAY...MILD AND WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM A
WARM FRONT WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.4 INCHES, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT,
SURGING WARM MOIST AIR WITH TELECONNECTIONS TO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HIGH WEDNESDAY COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, A GOOD 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOUNTAIN SUMMIT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ALSO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
FURTHER SNOW MELT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING FURTHER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS. GUSTS FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS COULD GUST UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH,
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN GUSTS AT THE ONSET OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOLIDAY TRAVEL
WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS OUR AREA,
BUT MAKE SURE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FOR ANY
CHANGES.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING LOW SLIDES
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC BORDER. LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN VERMONT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. COLD GUSTY SOUTHWESTLERY WINDS ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE ONTARIO
WILL SET UP FOR A GOOD LAKE EFFECT EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1252 AM EST MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GET UNDERWAY AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS IN UNTIL A VIGOROUS UPPER VORT PUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION. WARM SURFACE CONDITIONS AND VERY COOL UPPER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITHOUT THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DOESN'T BEGIN UNTIL FRIDAY. SO
THERE WILL BE SOME VALLEY RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
WILL BE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND THEN AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 100
J/KG WITH 8-9 C/KM LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP, THAT SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS VERMONT. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA, LESS BREEZY IN THE UPPER VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO JUST 20 MPH.
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST,
AND FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY. THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL AMBLE
SOUTHWARDS. THEN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING ACTIVITY TO MORE OROGRAPHIC
NORTHWEST SLOPE TYPE SNOW. BETWEEN THIS AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES. PROBABILISTIC
DATA SUGGESTS A 50-70% CHANCE OF ABOUT 8" OF SNOW IN FAR SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. WE'LL CERTAINLY KNOW MORE
AS HIGH RES, CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS CAN CAPTURE THESE DETAILS
BETTER.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS CHANNELED ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND INCOMING 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE AMBLES OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD BE
QUITE CHILLY IF WE MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED FAIRLY QUICKLY, AND WE'LL WARM BACK UP HEADING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER, AND THEY SHOULD ALL BE VFR BY
AROUND 00Z. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE FALLING OUT OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS, AND THEY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON AND OFF AT SLK, EFK AND MPV
FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LOW CEILINGS FINALLY
SCATTER OUT. AFTER THE CEILINGS FINALLY SCATTER, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST AREA WIDE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY TODAY, AND THEY WILL GO
MOSTLY CALM OR TERRAIN DRIVEN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AND INCREASE GOING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS
LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS IN MOST PLACES TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SHSN.
FRIDAY: MVFR. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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