901
FXUS61 KBTV 031949
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
249 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE AREA OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW, INCLUDING A NARROW BAND
OF HEAVIER SNOW, WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS, WILL
PROGRESS GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS PICK UP. FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, WITH SOME MODERATE SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 249 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 6", HEAVIEST IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
* SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS EARLY THURSDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY FRIGID TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION (>60% CHANCE).
ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING NORTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.
AS FLOW BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION HELPING TO BOOST THE
INTENSITY OF THE BAND AS IT EXTENDS INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY,
ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN WHICH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SOUTH OF
ROUTE 58, OF 4-6" WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY. AS SUCH, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY, WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THIS BAND. THE
EXACT AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND IS SLIGHTLY UNCLEAR, BUT
THE CONSENSUS IDEA IS BETWEEN GOUVERNEUR AND STAR LAKE, WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF NORTHWARD ALONG NY ROUTE 11.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MERGE WITH THE INCOMING SNOW SHOWERS
THAT WILL ORGANIZE OUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE QUITE STRONG WHICH
IS WHY THIS EVENT HAS BEEN ON OUR "RADAR" FOR SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THIS LINE. ORGANIZED WINTERTIME
CONVECTION MEANS SNOW SQUALLS, AND WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MEAGER, THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE I-89 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AM AND 10 AM, SO EXPECT SNOW SQUALL
WARNINGS WITH SIGNIFICANT TAGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED GIVEN
POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES (NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS). DUE TO THE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TOO
MUCH WIND. HOWEVER, A QUICK 0.5" TO 1" OF SNOW WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS LOOKS PLAUSIBLE, AS DEPTH OF MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
EXTREME BUT FAIRLY GOOD.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW
SQUALLS WILL LEAD TO 1-3" OF SNOW IN MUCH OF THE REGION AND
DIFFICULT TRAVEL EVEN WITH SUB-ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS, ASIDE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO, ARE PROBABLE IN THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GIVEN A TERRAIN BOOST WITH NORTHWESTERLY CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. ONE POSITIVE TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS IS THAT
BECAUSE OUR AIR MASS IS SO COLD OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SHARP
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN A FLASH
FREEZE. THAT BEING SAID, SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS, GIVEN LATER TIMING, MAY SEE ROAD TEMPERATURES
GET TO NEAR FREEZING. AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
MIDDAY TOMORROW, LAKE-ENHANCEMENT COULD LEAD TO RESURGENCE OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRONGLY NON-DIURNAL, WITH "WARMEST"
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IN MOST SPOTS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 10S BY EVENING. THERE WILL BE INCREASING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AS GUSTS BECOME FREQUENTLY ABOVE 25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AS WINDS GRADUALLY ABATE AND SKIES
CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME FRIGID. LOWS
WILL FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 249 PM EST WEDNESDAY...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL BE THE
STORY FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING WHEN MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. AS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASES,
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW RELATIVE TO ANYTHING WE'VE
SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER EVEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID
10S TO LOW 20S. SUNSHINE WILL BLUNT THE DISCOMFORT SOMEWHAT AND
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD, EVEN IF IT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING
THOSE SOUTH WINDS. THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP US
FROM SEEING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, WITH EXCEPTIONS PROBABLY
IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS WHERE FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FRIGID.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 133 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO END THE WEEK, OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. UNBLOCKED FLOW WILL ALLOW A FEW WAVES TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION, BUT UNBLOCKED FLOW WILL KEEP IMPACTS
LOW AS THE SYSTEMS NEVER FULLY AMPLIFY, DEEPEN, AND MATURE. THE
FIRST WAVE SATURDAY WILL SEE ITS PARENT LOW PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
QUEBEC WITH A SAGGING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. PROBABILITIES OF A
DUSTING TO 0.5" OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE ON SATURDAY ARE
ABOUT 70%. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF ONTARIO COULD DEVELOP, THOUGH WIND
PROFILES SHOULD KEEP THE BAND TO OUR SOUTH, WITH JUST SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH WITH DRIER
AIR QUICKLY ERODING ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOMALOUS STRONG
PRESSURE TO 1030MB WILL HELP TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TO START NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF 0F, WITH THE COLDER
LOCATIONS FAVORING THE USUAL COOL HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS MONDAY WILL EQUALLY BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD,
THOUGH SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FROM REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH TUESDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH AS FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AS SNOW.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES OUTSIDE OF MSS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR
FROM YESTERDAYS SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 10000FT OR
HIGHER. VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A ROBUST
COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MSS HAS ALREADY SEEN REDUCED CEILINGS TO MVFR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR, AT LEAST, THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW SQUALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 08-16Z FROM WEST TO
EAST. TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE BAND PASSAGE AT
EACH TERMINAL, WITH NEAR 08Z FOR MSS AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERMINALS, REACHING EFK/RUT BY 14 AND 16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IN THE
MAIN SNOW BAND, VSBYS DOWN TO AT LEAST 1SM ARE LIKELY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF 1/2SM POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT SLK/EFK/BTV. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR MOST SITES NEAR THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SEE GUSTS GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE OVERNIGHT UP TO 20 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT PASSES
EACH TERMINAL, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE TO 18Z TOMORROW, UP TO 35KTS. A PRONOUNCED
MID TO LOW LEVEL JET OF 100KTS, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SURFACE GUSTS,
WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LLWS AT RUT AROUND 04Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
AND LOW TO MID LEVEL TURBULENCE IS LIKELY BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR. CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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