205
FXUS61 KBTV 041121
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS. GUSTY
WINDS AND SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FOLLOW POST FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, BUT
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS, AND TEENS
TO 20S FOR LOWS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 148 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM SUNRISE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
* FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. SOME TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS.
OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST WE'VE BEEN
HIGHLIGHTING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. EARLY MORNING RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONGOING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO UP
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BUT RETURNS ARE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE TOUGH TO ATTAIN. ALSO
SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADAR IS THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT NOTED AS
A VERY THIN LINE OF REFLECTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OTTAWA AND
APPROACHING THE FRANKTOWN RADAR. 00Z CAMS DEPICT THIS FEATURE FAIRLY
WELL AND CONTINUE TO SHOW IT'S PROGRESSION SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM 09-12Z, THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT FROM 12-15Z, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM
15-18Z. WHILE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS REMAIN STRONG
WITH THIS FEATURE, WHAT IT LACKS ON THE 00Z CAMS IS ANY SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN THE
TRAILING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. HENCE, THE THREAT
FOR ANY STRONG SNOW SQUALLS MAY BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL EMBEDDED WITHIN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL HAVE SEVERAL EYES ON
THE RADAR THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL ISSUE STATEMENTS APPROPRIATELY.
OTHERWISE, POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROGGED TO FALL
SHARPLY FROM EARLY MORNING HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S TO THE TEENS BY
SUNSET. DEEP MIXING ADDITIONALLY LOOKS TO DEVELOP POST FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH WHICH COULD CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW FOR
THE EVENING COMMUTE. WINDS ABATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SKIES TREND
TOWARDS CLEARING SETTING THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON YET. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE, WITH LOCALLY
SOME TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
FAR NORTHERN ESSEX COUNTY OF VERMONT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 148 AM EST THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. FRIGID
TEMPERATURES EARLY MORNING FRIDAY MODERATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWS 20S, AND DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE BORDER RENEWS CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY, FOCUSED
MOSTLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH OF
THE REGION, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND NON-
IMPACTFUL WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 148 AM EST THURSDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, USHERING IN ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS. BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE -5F TO +10F RANGE,
WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. THAT BEING SAID,
EXPECT MONDAY WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR MID WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE STILL
PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM, WITH
SOME LIFTING IT OUR NORTH WHILE OTHERS TRACK IT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING, PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR
THE WIDER VALLEYS TO SEE SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM GIVEN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES, WHICH INDICATES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S,
BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO PRIMARILY
FALL IN THE FROZEN VARIETY.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE REGION. FIRST ROUND
OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS IS ALREADY AFFECTING KMSS/KSLK
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 16Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
WITH VISIBILITY 2-4SM DURING THIS TIME, BUT SQUALLS WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO 1/2SM FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH. AFTER 16Z, THE MOST PERSISTENT SQUALLS WILL HAVE
EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, AND LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL SQUALLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 21Z, WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR. S/SW WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS, TURNING TO THE
W/NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, INCREASING TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ029-087.
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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