489
FXUS61 KBTV 041840
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FOLLOW POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRIGID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS, AND
TEENS TO 20S FOR LOWS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
* FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. SOME TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
* LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 00Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INTENSIFIED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
VERY BLUSTERY THIS AFTERNOON AND BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED
AS WELL. AFTER 00Z WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO, WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS. HAVE
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER OUR
REGION. FRIGID TEMPERATURES EARLY MORNING FRIDAY MODERATE TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS 20S, AND DROP BACK DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 PM EST THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF
THE BORDER RENEWS CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY, FOCUSED MOSTLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT.
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE REGION, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EST THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE COOL, BUT GENERALLY
NICE TO START THE DAY. A WARM FRONT IS GOING TO MOVE NORTH
PARTWAY ACROSS THE REGION. SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT WILL BE NEAR FREEZING, WHILE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REMAINS AROUND 20. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THAT
BOUNDARY APPROACHES, AND POPS BEGIN CLIMBING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE DAY.
MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING A DEEPER LOW WITH SOME HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS, COLD AIR WILL FILTER BACK IN, WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING IN THE 10S DURING THE DAY, AND THEN
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM ENSEMBLES INDICATES
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN, BUT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND RELATIVELY MINOR IMPACT WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW CHANCES.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SNOW
SQUALLS, WHILE STILL IN THE REGION, SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST. AS OF 18Z, A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WAS APPROACHING BTV
WITH OBSERVED 3SM AT PBG. THIS BAND LOOKS TO BE THE LAST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND FOR MSS. AS THE BAND SHIFTS
SOUTH IT MAY REACH MPV BY 20Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VSBYS AT EFK/BTV AND PERHAPS MPV. UTILIZED PROB30 FOR RUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE PROPAGATION AND ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR THE
BAND FURTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP -SHSN AT SLK
FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS DECK
LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHICH
WILL BRING A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS THE CLEARING GRADUALLY
CONTINUES EASTWARD. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE TRENDS TO VFR BEYOND
19Z, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR BEYOND 00Z. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z, BEFORE
WEAKENING TOWARDS CALM BY 06Z. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30-35KTS
AT PBG/BTV, AND 20-30KTS ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR WITH WEAK
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z, WITH VFR CONTINUING WELL INTO TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ029-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-030.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...DANZIG
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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